Bay
Area Real Estate Sales.com Newsletter
September 2007
IN THIS ISSUE:
Marin
Home Sales Statistics
Marin
Home Sales Drop, But Median Price Is Up
What Did Your Neighbors’ House Sell For?
Fed Cut
Rate – But What Does This Mean To You?
Cut Mortgage Payment In Half Upon
Retirement
What Do Liz’s Clients Say?
Fast Facts
MARIN HOME SALES
STATISTICS
As always, it’s
important to view the individual city and price range stats – see the chart
below for more details.
For the first time the overall Marin Home Sales market is in
a “Strong Buyers” Market.
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Marin County
rose 6.6% in August, compared to the month before, up 8% year-over-year. The
average price rose 2.5%, up 14.2% year-over-year.
Sales of single-family homes were down 12.3% from July, and
were off 26.4% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are up 1.2%. Marin is
the only county in the Bay Area with higher home sales this year than last.
The median price for condos fell 16.9% to $490,000, a
year-over-year drop of 10.7%. The average price lost 6.4% to $633,204, up 6.4%
compared to August 2006. Condo sales rose 2.2% from July, but were down 14.8%
year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are off 11.4%.
August is a vacation month and home sales typically are
slower than in other months. The activity
since Labor Day shows that buyer's are in the market.
As you can see from the summary numbers in the report,
median prices rose but the number of units sold are down over 26% from the
prior year. This is a sign of
uncertainty. Many sellers have pulled
their homes off the market and are waiting for the market to stabilize. Many buyers are having an issue with the
increased mortgage rates and are waiting for the Fed to lower the discount
rate. I will give everyone an update at the end of the month. As always, drop
me an email with any questions or call me at 415-250-4929.
I’m always searching for ways to bring my clients and
readers more local real estate statistics.
I’m pleased to announce the launch of my new Marin home Sales Statistics
page. To view, go to: Marin Real Estate
Statistics.
If you know of anyone
who would like to receive this monthly newsletter or is thinking of either
buying or selling a home please let me know.
I’d love your referrals!
|
MARIN HOME (CONDO + SFR) SALES STATISTICS - BY CITY AS OF 9/18/07
|
|
City
|
Total
|
Active
|
Number in Contract***
|
Percent in Contract*
|
Type of Market*
(See Key)
|
|
Belvedere
|
19
|
16
|
3
|
16%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Corte
Madera
|
30
|
21
|
9
|
30%
|
Buyers
|
|
Fairfax
|
23
|
20
|
3
|
13%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Greenbrae
|
21
|
20
|
1
|
5%
|
Extreme Buyers
|
|
Kentfield
|
34
|
29
|
5
|
15%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Larkspur
|
28
|
26
|
2
|
7%
|
Extreme Buyers
|
|
Mill Valley
|
124
|
96
|
28
|
23%
|
Buyers
|
|
Novato
|
374
|
338
|
36
|
10%
|
Extreme Buyers
|
|
Ross
|
19
|
17
|
2
|
11%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
San
Anselmo
|
57
|
41
|
16
|
28%
|
Buyers
|
|
San Rafael
|
271
|
219
|
52
|
19%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Sausalito
|
54
|
46
|
8
|
15%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Tiburon
|
86
|
73
|
13
|
15%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Others
|
92
|
83
|
9
|
10%
|
Extreme Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 9/18/07
|
1,232
|
1,043
|
187
|
15.18%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 8/15/07
|
1,190
|
951
|
239
|
20.8%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 7/15/07
|
1,252
|
969
|
283
|
22.60%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 6/16/07
|
1,325
|
1,003
|
322
|
24.30%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 5/16/07
|
1,286
|
948
|
338
|
26.28%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 4/15/07
|
1,108
|
793
|
315
|
28.43%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 3/15/07
|
966
|
688
|
278
|
28.78
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 2/15/07
|
893
|
631
|
262
|
29.34%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 1/15/07
|
720
|
548
|
172
|
23.89%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 12/15/06
|
898
|
669
|
229
|
25.5%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 11/16/06
|
1,197
|
902
|
295
|
24.64%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 10/15/06
|
1,401
|
1,095
|
306
|
21.84%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 9/15/06
|
1,395
|
1,127
|
268
|
19.21%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 8/18/06
|
1,346
|
1,029
|
317
|
23.55%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 7/13/06
|
1392
|
1077
|
315
|
22.63%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 6/16/06
|
1323
|
959
|
364
|
27.51%
|
Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 5/18/06
|
1,177
|
817
|
360
|
31%
|
Balanced
|
|
Total Marin 4/10/06
|
977
|
629
|
348
|
36%
|
Sellers
|
|
Total Marin 3/15/06
|
894
|
597
|
297
|
33%
|
Balanced
|
|
MARIN HOME SALES STATISTICS - BY PRICE RANGE AS
OF 9/18/07
|
|
Price
|
Total
|
Active
|
Number in Contract***
|
Percent in Contract*
|
Type of Market*
(See Key)
|
|
$100,000-$499,999
|
164
|
151
|
13
|
8%
|
Extreme Buyers
|
|
$500,000-$749,999
|
263
|
213
|
50
|
19%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
$750,000-$999,999
|
278
|
228
|
50
|
18%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
$1,000,000-$1,499,999
|
196
|
170
|
26
|
13%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
$1,500,000-$1,999,999
|
133
|
110
|
23
|
17%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
$2,000,000-$2,499,999
|
62
|
54
|
8
|
13%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
$2,500,000-$2,999,999
|
42
|
38
|
4
|
10%
|
Extreme Buyers
|
|
$3,000,000-$3,999,999
|
50
|
42
|
8
|
16%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Over $4,000,000
|
45
|
40
|
5
|
11%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
Total Marin 9/18/07
|
1,233
|
1,046
|
187
|
15%
|
Strong Buyers
|
|
DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)**
|
|
Date
|
Average
|
Median
|
Maximum
|
|
Aug 07
|
79
|
57
|
835
|
|
Trends
at a Glance
|
|
(Single-family
Homes)
|
|
|
Aug 07
|
Jul 07
|
Aug 06
|
|
Median Price:
|
$1,050,000
|
$985,000
|
$972,500
|
|
Average Price:
|
$1,402,247
|
$1,368,381
|
$1,227,378
|
|
Home Sales:
|
178
|
203
|
242
|
|
Sale/List Price
Ratio:
|
98.4%
|
96.3%
|
97.6%
|
|
Days on Market:
|
76
|
70
|
64
|
|
*Key to market type:
|
|
0% - 10% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Buyers
|
36% - 45%
of Homes in Escrow: Sellers
|
|
11% - 20%
of Homes in Escrow: Strong Buyers
|
46% - 55%
of Homes in Escrow: Strong Sellers
|
|
21% - 30%
of Homes in Escrow: Buyers
|
56% - 100%
of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Sellers
|
|
31% - 35% of Homes in Escrow: Balanced Market
|
**Based on
information from Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. (BAREIS). Information has not been verified, is not
guaranteed, and is subject to change and is based on one period of time.”
***Includes
all: Sale
Pending & Contingent properties
|
August Sales Statistics
|
|
(Single-family
Homes)
|
|
|
Prices
|
Unit
|
|
|
Change from last
year
|
|
|
Median
|
Average
|
Sales
|
DOM
|
SP/LP
|
Median
|
Average
|
Sales
|
|
Marin
|
$1,050,000
|
$1,402,247
|
178
|
76
|
98.4%
|
8.0%
|
14.2%
|
-26.4%
|
|
Belvedere
|
$3,000,000
|
$6,322,000
|
5
|
209
|
97.6%
|
-1.1%
|
108.5%
|
150.0%
|
|
Corte Madera
|
$1,025,000
|
$988,344
|
9
|
47
|
97.2%
|
4.1%
|
-12.4%
|
-18.2%
|
|
Fairfax
|
$789,000
|
$816,857
|
7
|
35
|
103.9%
|
-6.3%
|
-16.3%
|
-30.0%
|
|
Greenbrae
|
$1,350,000
|
$1,184,000
|
5
|
35
|
103.9%
|
25.6%
|
17.6%
|
66.7%
|
|
Kentfield
|
$1,750,000
|
$1,882,937
|
9
|
70
|
99.1%
|
-15.3%
|
-12.0%
|
125.0%
|
|
Larkspur
|
$1,237,000
|
$1,237,000
|
2
|
66
|
99.2%
|
-26.0%
|
-21.9%
|
-75.0%
|
|
Mill Valley
|
$1,080,000
|
$1,316,894
|
33
|
47
|
99.4%
|
-2.9%
|
3.7%
|
-17.5%
|
|
Novato
|
$842,700
|
$885,266
|
29
|
85
|
98.0%
|
4.7%
|
-4.3%
|
-53.2%
|
|
Ross
|
$1,667,500
|
$3,335,167
|
3
|
128
|
98.7%
|
-8.1%
|
45.3%
|
0.0%
|
|
San Anselmo
|
$985,000
|
$976,800
|
18
|
70
|
97.9%
|
15.9%
|
-6.2%
|
28.6%
|
|
San Rafael
|
$820,000
|
$1,085,676
|
27
|
64
|
99.2%
|
-7.1%
|
1.7%
|
-48.1%
|
|
Sausalito
|
$1,612,500
|
$1,841,136
|
11
|
166
|
96.9%
|
-21.3%
|
-9.3%
|
37.5%
|
|
Tiburon
|
$1,300,000
|
$1,978,875
|
8
|
64
|
98.6%
|
-48.1%
|
-27.7%
|
-27.3%
|
|
August Sales Statistics
|
|
(Condos/Townhomes)
|
|
|
Prices
|
Unit
|
|
|
Change from last
year
|
|
|
Median
|
Average
|
Sales
|
DOM
|
SP/LP
|
Median
|
Average
|
Sales
|
|
Marin
|
$490,000
|
$633,204
|
46
|
90
|
97.5%
|
-10.7%
|
6.4%
|
-14.8%
|
|
Corte Madera
|
$0
|
$0
|
0
|
0
|
0.0%
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Greenbrae
|
$434,750
|
$434,750
|
2
|
48
|
98.5%
|
-24.4%
|
-24.4%
|
0.0%
|
|
Mill Valley
|
$519,500
|
$519,500
|
2
|
65
|
96.3%
|
-30.7%
|
-30.0%
|
-77.8%
|
|
Novato
|
$452,000
|
$435,048
|
13
|
109
|
95.8%
|
-11.4%
|
-12.4%
|
-31.6%
|
|
San Rafael
|
$444,250
|
$556,839
|
14
|
111
|
97.5%
|
-19.1%
|
-2.8%
|
-12.5%
|
|
Sausalito
|
$674,000
|
$691,100
|
5
|
60
|
98.7%
|
7.0%
|
-8.7%
|
66.7%
|
|
Tiburon
|
$1,410,000
|
$1,368,000
|
6
|
64
|
97.8%
|
28.8%
|
24.9%
|
500.0%
|
FREE…..You can search for Marin listings directly on
BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes
Back to top
MARIN HOME SALES DROP,
BUT MEDIAN PRICE IS UP
Marin's median home price hit the $1 million mark again last
month, but sales of homes slid more than 32 percent compared with this time
last year, a real estate research firm reported Thursday.
August's median price for single-family homes
rose 8.7 percent from August 2006, when the median price was $920,000. The
median price for condominiums in Marin last month - $520,000 - dropped 4.8
percent from $546,500 in August 2006.
The rise in the median - which has hit the $1 million mark
three times this year - combined with the decline in volume signals a stable
luxury market making up for the lagging low end that has been most affected by
the mortgage meltdown, analysts said.
Yet to fully play out is the impact tighter lending
practices, including restrictions this summer on jumbo loans over $417,000,
have had on markets such as Marin, DataQuick analyst
Andrew LePage said.
In Marin, 76.9 percent of borrowers took out jumbo loans in
August. In the last week of the month, that number dropped to 69.1 percent, LePage said. "You
can say that the jumbo situation had some impact on sales," he said.
"It was not a large one - it was noticeable in the last week of the month.
What's unclear is if this is the beginning
of a trend."
Bay Area homes sold at the slowest pace in 15 years last
month as market uncertainty intensified, forcing more buyers, sellers and
lenders to the sidelines. Prices remained flat at the regional level but there
were local variations, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 7,299 new and resale houses and condos were sold
in the nine-county Bay Area in August. That was down 1.7 percent from 7,423 in
July, and down 24.9 percent from 9,713 for August a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis the last 31
months. Sales last month were the lowest for any August since 1992 when 6,688
homes were sold. The strongest August in DataQuick's statistics, which go back
to 1988, was in 2004 when 13,940 homes were sold. The August average is 10,170.
"Homes in the Bay Area are more expensive than
elsewhere and most of them are financed with 'jumbo' mortgages. The turbulence
in the mortgage markets has made it more difficult to get this type of
financing. The question is: does this pull the plug on some market activity, or
does it just slow things down? We won't know the answer for a few months,"
said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.
The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $655,000 last
month. That was down 1.5 percent from the June and July peak of $665,000, and
up 4.0 percent from $630,000 for August a year ago. The median was down in
Solano, Sonoma and Napa counties and flat or up in the other
counties.
Foreclosure resales accounted for
4.8 percent of August's sales activity, up from 4.5
percent in July, and up from 1.2 percent in August of last year. Foreclosure resales do not yet have a regional effect on prices.
Other indicators of market distress continue to move in
different directions. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is flat, financing with multiple mortgages has declined
significantly. Down payment sizes are stable, flipping rates and non-owner
occupied buying activity is flat, DataQuick reported.
Source: DQnews.com & Marin IJ
WHAT DID YOUR NEIGHBORS’ HOUSE SELL FOR?
Are you Curious to know what the Median home price is in
your neighborhood?
The Neighborhood Homes Sold listing is a weekly reader
feature of the Sunday San Francisco Chronicle. The data posted here is typically recorded a
few months after the property officially sold.
This is the public data available in the published tax records. The home addresses, sales price, number of
bedrooms, square footage and the year the homes were built are based on
information supplied from Bay Area counties' property transaction records which,
in some cases, may not be complete.
Previous editions of
Neighborhood
Homes Sold
Click on the following links to see what price homes sold for in your
neighborhood:
09/23/07 Sept
23 Marin Home Sales
09/16/07 Sept
16 Marin Home Sales
09/09/07 Sept
09 Marin Home Sales
09/02/07 Sept
2 Marin Home Sales
08/26/07 Aug
27 Marin Home Sales
08/19/07
Aug
19 Marin Home Sales
08/12/07
Aug
12 Marin Homes Sales
08/05/07 Aug
05 Marin Home Sales
07/29/07 July
29 Marin Home Sales
07/22/07 July
22 Marin Home Sales
FREE…..You can search for Marin listings directly on
BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes
FED CUT RATE – BUT WHAT
DOES THIS MEAN TO YOU?
The long awaited Fed decision arrived with a bang! The Fed
surprised many economists and traders with a half percent cut (to 4 ¾%) in both the Fed
Funds and Discount Rates. Stocks soared higher and enjoyed their largest gain
since 2003.
What does the Fed cut mean? Rates on consumer debt, car
loans, and Home Equity lines will all benefit. But because Home Loan rates are
tied more closely to inflation, it is not uncommon to see less of a
reaction...or even an opposite reaction in mortgage rates.
The Fed cut also hurts rates of return on investments, which
gives foreign investors less incentive to invest in US securities. This has
sent the Dollar much lower against the currency of most major foreign
countries. This makes foreign goods more expensive for us to buy, which adds to
inflation pressures.
Overall, the Fed cut is good news for the economy, but may
nudge inflation a bit higher.
CUT MORTGAGE PAYMENT IN HALF UPON RETIREMENT
by:
Jack Guttentag
"I am 58 and just purchased the home in which my wife
and I plan to spend the rest of our lives. We paid points to reduce the rate on
a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to 4.75 percent.
I am feeling very insecure. The payment is affordable now, but I plan to
retire in seven years and my income will drop. At that point, my property taxes
will almost certainly be higher as well.
I fear that when I retire, the mortgage payment will become
a major strain on my finances. I would like to get it down to about half of
what it is now. What is the best way to do that? I have free assets equal to
about half the loan balance."
Your free assets make it possible to eliminate your insecurity about a payment
you can't afford. The issue is how best to use those assets.
Paying Down the Balance and Refinancing:
Using your free assets to pay down the balance of your existing mortgage would
shorten the term but not reduce the payment. You would have to refinance to get
the payment down, which would mean replacing your 4.75 percent rate with a
current market rate of at least 6 percent. That is inadvisable. You may have to
give up the 4.75 percent rate when you retire, but there is no point in giving
it up now.
Paying Down the Balance
and Modifying the Loan: Some lenders, for a fee, will modify a loan contract. Because the rate
on your mortgage is so low, it would be in the lender's interest to have the
balance paid down, even if not completely. Assuming the lender is willing, you
can use your free assets to pay down the balance and then modify the contract
based on the new balance. This would allow you to retain the 4.75 percent rate
on half of your loan.
If you pay off half the balance and the rate and term remain
the same, the payment would fall by half as well. This would give you the peace
of mind you are looking for.
However, there can be no assurance that the lender will be
willing or able to modify the loan. Your mortgage could be sitting in a pool of
mortgages that are the collateral for a mortgage security, in which case a
modification would not be possible. Without the modification, there would be
little point in paying down the balance.
Furthermore, it is probably a mistake to pay off any part of
a 4.75 percent debt when risk-free investments are available at yields higher
than that. Repaying debt is an investment that yields the interest rate on the
debt. Since you can currently buy an insured 7-year certificate of deposit (CD)
yielding at least 5.25 percent, you will be better off when you retire if you
buy the CD rather than pay down the mortgage balance.
Sit Tight and Invest: I would use the spare cash to buy a CD
that will mature about the time you retire. At that point you take stock of the
market to plan your next move. If you can continue to earn more than 4.75
percent, you remain invested. On the other hand, if rates have come down to the
point where you can no longer invest at a yield above 4.75 percent, you
liquidate the CD, pay down the mortgage balance and refinance it to lower the
payment.
The old maxim that you should have your mortgage paid off
when you retire had a lot of merit for people whose wealth was largely in their
home. For people with significant amounts of financial assets, however, the
maxim needs revision. What matters is not the mortgage balance alone, but the
balance relative to financial assets. Retiring with a $200,000 mortgage balance
and $400,000 of financial assets is preferable to retiring with no mortgage and
no assets.
BUT: Note that I recommended investing in an insured asset.
Don't use the revised maxim as a license to gamble with your retirement, as a
lot of market gunslingers would have you do. They would like you to do a
cash-out refinance for the maximum amount possible, which they will arrange for
you, and invest the proceeds in risky assets, which they will also arrange for
you. They take theirs off the top, but whether it works for you depends on how
well the investments do. It might work out or it might not, but if you are
close to retirement, it is not a gamble I recommend.
WHAT DO LIZ’S CLIENTS SAY?
“I feel
compelled to share our experience in home buying with Liz McCarthy as our real
estate agent. Being a first-time
homebuyer, I was new to the process, although my fiancé was not, and we both
learned much from Liz along the way.
First and foremost, Liz was in constant contact with us for the many
weeks we were looking at homes. Her
patience in explaining the intricacies of the process made all the
difference. Liz clearly had our best
interests at heart from the start and was able to gently and insightfully guide
us to the homes on the market that not only fit our criteria but also possessed
the attributes we weren’t necessarily attuned to, such as attractive school
districts, good neighborhoods, strong resale value, clean inspection reports
and comparative value.
We
presented a significant challenge as buyers because we had not targeted a
particular town or area to live.
Therefore, we really relied upon Liz’s knowledge of the entire county
when we were looking at homes. I said many times that it felt as if we were
Liz’s only clients. The responsiveness
and willingness to discuss our situation at all hours of the day and night was
nothing short of amazing. Having her
actively enthusiastic about our search helped us through the frustrations of
home buying in a challenging market. In
the end, Liz spotted our “dream home” that combined the best of all of the
elements that we desired and communicated to her. When Liz first saw what was to be our home,
she sent me a picture of the view from the kitchen into the amazing landscaped
back yard from her cell phone, with an audio file describing what a great place
it was. Then, she arranged for my fiancé
and I to be the first to see the house a day prior to
the official open house. When we walked
inside, we knew that it was “it!” Liz
then guided us through a multiple bid situation and within a week, we were in escrow
and on Cloud 9!
In
summary, I would highly recommend Liz McCarthy to anyone, whether you are
buying or selling for the first time or you own more property than Donald
Trump. You’ll benefit from her level of service and expertise and become yet
one more happy client!”
-Anne Hastings, VP Client Relations,
SF Giants & Mike Aguilar, Fireman, SFFD
If you would like to have Liz help you sell your Marin home
or help you find a home, or you know of someone that could benefit from her
services, just send her an email: liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com or give her a call: 415-250-4929
“High-Touch through High-Tech”: Did you know that Liz
McCarthy is ePro Internet Certified by the National
Association of Realtors and that 70 percent of home buyers today use the
internet in their home search? Why are
you still working with a Realtor who isn’t a technology expert?
What this means to you:
Home Buyers: Liz is
an expert in helping save you time by using the internet, email and other
technology resources to help save your valuable time and money. She knows how busy you are!
Home Sellers: Liz will
hire a professional photographer and market your home extensively on the
internet: a personal property website
(see www.417Greenfield.com or www.50milland.com for samples), she will
post your home on over 50 websites.
Back to top
FAST FACTS
Marin median
SFR + condo price– Aug 07: $940,000 2006: $864,000 [Source: BAREIS]
Marin average SFR + condo price-:
Aug 07: $1,239,000; 2006: $1,089,129 [Source:
BAREIS]
Marin median
SFR home price – Aug 07: $1,045 ,000; 2006: $956,000
[Source: BAREIS]
Marin median
condo price – Aug 07: $490,000; 2006: $548,000 [Source: BAREIS]
Calif. median home price –July 07: $586,000 [Source: C.A.R.]
Calif. highest median home price July 07: Santa Barbara So. Coast $1,100,000 [Source: C.A.R.]
Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R.
region July 07: High Desert $296,000 [Source: C.A.R.]
Calif. First-time Buyer
Affordability Index – 2nd Quarter 07: 24 percent [Source: C.A.R.]
Mortgage
rates - week ending 9/20/07: (Source:
Freddie Mac)
·
30-yr.
fixed: 6.34%; Fees/points: 0.5%
·
15-yr.
fixed: 5.98%; Fees/points: 0.5%
·
1-yr.
adjustable: 5.71%; Fees/points: 0.4% (as of 6/14/07)
FREE…..You can search for Marin listings directly on
BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes
Be sure to
check out all the other great content & features of my website:
www.BayAreaRealEstateSales.com
The Bay
Area Real Estate Newsletter is provided to you by:
Liz McCarthy
“High-Touch through “High-Tech”
Real Estate Broker, e-PRO certified
Vision Real Estate
Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com
415-250-4929
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