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Bay Area Real Estate Sales.com Newsletter

August 2012 Marin Real Estate Stats


In This Month’s Issue:

AUGUST 2012 MARIN REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

WHEN IS THE RIGHT TIME TO REFINANCE YOUR MORTGAGE? 

LIZ McCARTHY LISTINGS

WHAT IS YOUR MARIN HOME WORTH TODAY?

FORECLOSURES/BANK OWNED AND AUCTION PROPERTIES

SEARCH MARIN HOMES FOR SALE

MARIN SCHOOL, COMMUNITY & HOME SEMINAR

LOOKING FOR A VACATION HOME OR RENTAL IN LAKE TAHOE?

WHAT DO CLIENTS SAY ABOUT WORKING WITH LIZ McCARTHY?



AUGUST 2012 MARIN REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE



 

July 2012 Closed Sales

Single Family Residence


Days on Market

List

Price

Selling Price

$/Square Foot

Average

101

$1,085,000

$1,063,000

$457

Median

54

$850,000

$846,000

$411

 


 

July 2012 Closed Sales

Condos


Days on Market

List

Price

Selling Price

$/Square Foot

Average

103

$413,000

$410,000

$309

Median

46

$377,000

$374,000

$293

 

Overall Marin County Market Trends:
As of 8/13/2012, there are currently 1141 active homes and condos for sale in Marin County. 523 of these homes (47%) are currently under contract, which equates to a “Sellers Market” down slightly from June’s “Strong Sellers Market” (See seller/buyer Market Legend below)

Single Family Homes: There are currently (as of 8/13/12) 920 (385of those are under contract) Single Family Homes for Sale in Marin County. The current ACTIVE/Pending/Contingent average home price for Single Family homes in Marin is $1,652,000 and the median is $899,000.The overall Marin average asking price per square foot is $457/sf; the median is: $411/sf The average sold price for Single family homes in Marin in July was $1,063,000 and the median sold price was: $846,000. In April it took 54 Median days for Single Family Homes to go pending.

Condos: There are currently 221 Condos for sale in Marin County as of 8/13/12. The current ACTIVE/Pending/Contingent average home price for Condos in Marin is: $442,000 and the median is: $325,000. The average sold price for Condos in Marin County for the month of July was: $413,000 and the median: $377,000.  The overall Marin average asking price per square foot for condos is: $309/square foot; the median asking price is: $293/sf. It is taking an average of 119 days for condos to go pending.


Liz McCarthy’s Thoughts on the Marin County Real Estate Market


We haven’t seen the limited amount of inventory in Marin County since our market peaked back in 2007! It did tick up a bit from April. We currently have 2.5 months of “inventory” (see chart below): which is still quite low. At our lowest point this year (back in March, we only had 1.6 months of available inventory). Take a look at the charts below and you’ll see that the number of pending homes have almost doubled while the inventory is almost at half! Compared to a year ago, there just aren’t as many available homes to purchase in Marin County. If you have been considering selling your home, the majority of the Marin Real Estate market has turned back to a Sellers Market!


Did you see my “Sound Off” in the San Francisco Chronicle this last weekend? Here is the link to it:

http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Personal-touch-can-make-an-offer-standout-3779698.php


Marin County real estate market distress indicators continue to track in multiple directions. Activity in foreclosures has fallen as it’s well below the peak levels seen over recent few years. (see charts below in newsletter)


Interest rates remain low, buyers are convinced that the bottom has hit, so buyers are now trying to get back into the market, but it seems that sellers are continuing to wait until the prices go back up. My general feeling is that home prices, although they will start inching back up, will NOT go up to the levels that we had in 2007, as those prices were not sustainable. It was a severe housing bubble that cannot sustain itself.


If you want to sell your home here is what’s VERY important to keep in mind: 1. Price your home for the market TODAY, not for the market a few years ago. Buyers are educated, savvy and will not over pay for a home even with the lack of inventory. 2. Buyers desire homes that have been updated and are in move-in condition.


I would be more than happy to run these charts for you for any particular segment you might be interested in, just send me an email and let me know the town and whether it’s condos or single family homes I can even limit to certain price ranges as well.


FUN FACT:

There are 8.74 million houses and condos in California. Of those, 239,636 are assessed for more than a million dollars by county assessor offices, up from 233,006 a year earlier, DataQuick reported.


Homes sales in Marin vary greatly by town and by price point. Find your city and price range on the charts below to see how your area is fairing compared to the rest of the County.

 

Marin County Real Estate Stats:

 

What Type of Market is Marin In?

The following rates are calculated by taking all of the currently active Properties divided by the number that are under contract (Contingent and Pending). This percentage can give you an overall view of the health of the market (*see the Market Legend below to see what market type that pending number falls into). The higher the percentage the “hotter” the market is for sellers, meaning there are often multiple offers with competitive pricing, which ultimately drives the price up.

 

Analysis by City:

 

 

Extreme Buyers

Strong Buyers

Buyers

Balanced Market

Sellers

Strong Sellers

Extreme Sellers

0 – 10% of homes in contract

11-20% of homes in contract

21%-30% of homes in contract

31-35% of homes in contract

36%-45% of homes in contract

46% - 55% of homes in contract

56% - 100% of homes in contract


Belvedere
Corte Madera
Ross
Tiburon

Kentfield
Larkspur


Fairfax
Mill Valley
San Anselmo

San Rafael
Sausalito

Greenbrae
Novato

 

 

Analysis by Price Range:

 

 

 

 

Extreme Buyers

Strong Buyers

Buyers

Balanced Market

Sellers

Strong Sellers

Extreme Sellers

0 – 10% of homes in contract

11-20% of homes in contract

21%-30% of homes in contract

31-35% of homes in contract

36%-45% of homes in contract

46% - 55% of homes in contract

56% - 100% of homes in contract

$3M +

$1.5M - 2.5M

$1.3M - $1.5M

$1M - $1.3M



$750K - $999K

$0 - $750K

 

 

ForSale-Sold-Pending-New Listings

The number of homes sold in Marin County pretty much remained at its current plateau.  The number of homes sold in July was 280 homes.  After a steady monthly increase, the number of homes for sale in Marin County dipped slightly to 667.  We need to wait for the August figures to confirm whether a new downward trend has begun.  The recent downward trends in both pending sales and new listings would seem to indicate that downward trends in homes sold and homes for sale will continue in the near future.

Marin Sold versus Pending Listings

 

Days-on-Market v Sale Price/List Price percentage

The average Days-on-Market (DOM) for sold homes took a big jump to 84 days in July.  This had no effect on the percentage of sale price/list price as it has now stayed at 98% for the last 4 months.

 

Months-of-Inventory-v-Pending-Sales

The average months-of-inventory in Marin County continued its steady rise since its low seen back in March.  At the current sales rate, this trend in months-of-inventory has a good chance of continuing, as the July figure was 2.5 months, breaking through the 2.2 months ceiling recorded in February.

Marin County Months of inventory august 2012

 

Avg-Price-for-Sale-Sold

The average price of homes sold in Marin County during July made a slight jump to $950,000.  At he same time, the average list price of Marin County homes for sale may have plateaued in July at $1,952,000.

 

Avg-Price-per-Sqft

The average price per square foot recorded for homes sold in Marin County during July decreased to $439.  However, the recent downward trend will not be confirmed unless the August price moves below $431.

 

 

WHEN IS THE RIGHT TIME TO REFINANCE YOUR MORTGAGE? 

By Celeste Mirassou, Certified Financial Planner

That seems like a question with an obvious answer, right? You refinance when the interest rate on the new loan is lower than your rate on the current loan. But how much lower? And is it really as simple as subtracting one rate from another and signing on the dotted line?

When I talk to mortgage brokers the question they typically ask is how long does the person considering a re-fi plan to keep his or her home. Then, they calculate a break-even point based on the savings from the reduced payment compared with the cost of the re-fi.. For example, a client whose rate would go from 6% to 4.568% on a 30 year mortgage for $330,000 could reduce her payments $570 per month or $6,840 per year. Compared these savings with the $2,500 in costs to get the new loan, and this person would break even in less than five months.

That's how a mortgage broker thinks about a re-fi. As a financial planner, I take a demand a more comprehensive analysis.

As a financial planner, I would want to know how the lower interest rate on the new loan -- and the lower mortgage interest deduction -- is going to change their tax situation. I also want to know how long the borrower has held the current mortgage.

Why do I care about the age of the current mortgage? When you pay interest and principal on a loan you do NOT do so in equal amounts. Instead, you pay more interest up front, and then you pay more and more principal as a percentage of the total payment each year you hold the loan.

 

This table shows how the balance between principal and interest payments changes over the life of the loan.

Year

Principal

Interest

1

12%

87%

5

17%

83% 

10

25%

75%

15

35%

65%

20

49%

51%

 

Let's go back to the example I discussed above. In this case, the clients have been paying on their loan for 13 years. So, they're now in the period of the loan when between 25 and 35% of every loan payment goes to principal. .If they refinance, they have to start all over with only 12% of the payment going to principal. They have a lower payment, yes, but they have also added years -- and dollars -- to the total cost of their loan.   [To add some numbers to this example, the total cost of their current loan will be $466,000, while the total cost of the new loan would be $617,000. Which loan would you rather have?]


Of course, making this kind of decision is more complicated than comparing two numbers. Do you need the extra cash flow from the refinanced mortgage? Will you use this "extra money" to invest for your retirement, or to pay for college for your kids? Is it important for you to pay off your mortgage before you retire? These are just some of the real-life questions I deal with every day.

 

As an hourly financial planner, I can't make decisions for you, but I can provide you with my experience in these issues, and I can give you the numbers you need to quantify the long-term impact of your financial choices. That's the best way I know for you to make the kind of informed decisions that will make life better for you and your family -- right now, and well into the future.  If you're uncertain about some of your financial choices, an independent, hourly financial planner can help answer your questions, provide you with strategies and come up with effective solutions. My help is only a phone call away.

By: Celeste Mirassou, CFP

415 785-3268

http://financialplanningfocus.com


LIZ McCARTHY LISTINGS


Liz’s Listings:


519 Throckmorton, Mill Valley - $12,000/month (for lease available starting July 2012)

www.519throckmortonave.com


812 South Eliseo, Greenbrae - $499,000 – UNDER CONTRACT

www.812SouthEliseo.com

Great location for this rare 3 bedroom Greenbrae townhome-like condo with no-one living above or below you and backing to a hillside it allows for a very tranquil lifestyle. Enter from your private 2-car garage and up the steps into the living room , fireplace, sliding glass doors that lead out to a front deck. There is a 1/2 bathroom and a good-sized kitchen with eat-in area as well. The top level includes 3 bedrooms: a large master with a cathedral ceiling an in-suite bathroom and walk-in closet plus 2 other bedrooms and a full bathroom. The unit backs to a hillside for privacy and tranquility. The attached 2 car garage w/interior access has a huge storage (or work-shop) & laundry area. The HOA of $425/month includes a community pool. Close and convenient to hiking trails along the waterway, bike paths, shopping, hospital & medical facilities, restaurants, Larkspur Ferry and Hwy 101 plus excellent schools.


Listings Coming Soon:


101 Knollwood, San Rafael 3/2.5 Townhome on the golf course, end unit in Peacock Gap, Price TBD


351 Melrose, Mill Valley (Homestead Valley) Price TBD, likely $850,000 3BR/2BA (1 bedroom/bathroom is separate unit)


Liz’s Current Escrows:

812 S Eliseo, Greenbrae (list price $499,000) representing Sellers


Liz Just Sold: 2012 - $10M to Date

59 Roundtree, San Rafael (off market) $355,000 represented Buyers)

519 Throckmorton, Mill Valley LEASED $11,000/month

45 Marina, San Rafael, LEASED $6,000/month

683 S Eliseo, Greenbrae, $518,000 (Represented Seller)

1917 Benton, Novato $705,500 (Represented Buyer)

397 Headlands Court, Sausalito $395,000 (representing Buyers)

212 Spencer Avenue, Sausalito $1,295,000 (represented Buyers)

1247 Highland Avenue, Novato $700,000 (represented Buyer)

6 Merrydale Court, San Rafael $249,000 Short sale (represented Sellers)

209 West Street, Sausalito $551,000 (represented Buyers and Sellers)

40 Oak Mountain, San Rafael $1,202,000 (represented Buyer)

448 Miller Creek Road, San Rafael $669,500 (represented Buyer)

25 Ridgewood Drive, San Rafael $780,000 (represented Buyer)

15 Forrest Lane, San Rafael $184,000 (short sale, represented Buyers)

35 Bernard, Mill Valley $1,650,000 (represented Seller)

529 Rowland, Novato $425,000 (short sale, represented Seller)

2530 Opalstone, San Rafael, Marinwood, $560,000 (represented Buyers)


2011 - $15M in closed sales

2010 - $12M in closed sales


WHAT IS YOUR MARIN HOME WORTH TODAY?


I’ve mentioned in the past, I’m constantly on the look out for information to better prepare my clients to understand the local real estate market. I’ve got 2 great new stat evaluation programs that I’m providing FREE of charge to my clients and viewers of my newsletter!


FREE HOME VALUATION REPORT TOOL:


This tool will actually give you an approximate VALUE of YOUR home. Additionally, you can make changes to your “home” which will change your homes valuation. This is nice for running scenarios (like do I add on to my house to make it bigger or add bedrooms?) This report will give you an instant home valuation. You do have the option of entering your email address to receive updates of when new homes sell.

Free Marin Home Value Report


DETAILED MARKET EVALUATION REPORT BY CITY:


Fabulous stats program that breaks down city statics. Will show you weekly average and median prices, days on market, Additionally, you can sign up to receive a detailed weekly market update of your interested city. Whenever you view this page the graphics will automatically update to the most current data, so check back often, or even better, sign up to receive alerts of when new statics are released by city.

FREE Statistical Reports by Marin Town

Of course, if you have any questions please call me at 415-250-4929 or drop me an email at Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com


FORECLOSURES/BANK OWNED AND AUCTION PROPERTIES


I’ve been tracking the Marin County Foreclosure data since April of 2009. In April 2009, there were a total of 843 total distressed homes in Marin County (per the County Tax records) and as of August 13, 2012, the number is 1,003. The number of distressed homes is down 300 from it’s peak in late 2011 and is the 2nd lowest number of distressed homes since I’ve been charting the data. I take this to mean that the number of underwater mortgages in Marin may finally be decreasing.

 

Doing a quick search in our MLS as of 8/13/2012, I show that currently only 326 total distressed home are listed for sale on the mls (10/2011 there were 436): 79 Bank owned; and 247 that are short sale/ NOD or in foreclosure. This is an interesting number as in the County of Marin there are 1,003 distressed homes (according to the tax records), but only 326 of these homes are currently for sale. That means that there are still at least 677 homes that have NOD filed on them, or are bank owned but are NOT currently listed for sale.

 

Explanation of a “distressed” or bank owned home

After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is to be “sold at auction”, this is typically done on the court house steps at the County Court house. The bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory. In order to purchase a home at the foreclosure auction, the buyer needs to have cash and also be prepared to purchase the property and clear any other liens that may be outstanding (property taxes, HOA dues, etc). The reason here in Marin we don’t see a lot of homes being purchased at the court house steps is the fact that the opening bid is higher than what the house is currently worth.

 

What is a short sale?  according to wikipidia:

“A short sale is a sale of real estate in which the proceeds from selling the property will fall short of the balance of debts secured by liens against the property, whereby the lien holders agree to release their lien on the real estate and accept less than the amount owed on the debt. Any unpaid balance owed to the creditors is known as a deficiency. Short sale agreements do not necessarily release borrowers from their obligations to repay any deficiencies of the loans, unless specifically agreed to between the parties which is typically the case in a non-recourse loan (where the mortgage was used to purchase the home-owners principal residence.”

A short sale is often used as an alternative to foreclosure because it mitigates additional fees and costs to both the creditor and borrower; however both will often result in a negative credit report against the property owner.

Liz has closed a number of short sales this year (representing both buyers and sellers). If you are feeling a hardship with your home, please feel free to confidentially contact me.


Type

Number as of 8/13/12

Pre-foreclosure

333

Auction Sale

375

Bank Owned

295

TOTAL

1,003

 

 

FREE…..You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes


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SEARCH MARIN HOMES FOR SALE


The following links will take you to home searches for different cities in Marin.
All search results are displayed from the highest price to the lowest price. You can scroll through pages at a time.

Belvedere Homes For Sale

Corte Madera Homes For Sale

Fairfax Homes For Sale

Greenbrae Homes For Sale

Kentfield Homes For Sale

Larkspur Homes For Sale

Mill Valley Homes For Sale

Mill Valley Condos For Sale

Novato Homes For Sale

Novato Condos

Ross Homes For Sale

San Anselmo Homes For Sale

San Rafael Homes For Sale

San Rafael Condos For Sale

Sausalito Homes For Sale

Tiburon Homes For Sale

Marin Luxury homes priced over $2M - $3M Marin Luxury Home Search:

Marin homes priced over $3M Marin Luxury Home Search:

Floating Homes for sale: Sausalito House Boats


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MARIN SCHOOL, COMMUNITY & HOME SEMINAR


Are you considering a move to or within Marin County?


Starting in 2010 Liz starting conducting regular Marin School, Community and Home Seminars. To date, she has held 10 of these seminars to rave reviews! In these seminars, Liz goes over:


1.   Marin Schools

2.   Preschool information

3.   Micro Climates of Marin

4.   Commuting to and from San Francisco

5.   Marin Communities

6.   Average Home prices in different Marin towns

7.  Current Mortgage Market update (given by a banking/mortgage expert)


Next Seminar date:

August 28, 2012

September 24, 2012


Contact Liz for more info

If you are interested in attending an upcoming seminar, you can find the dates, locations and details to RSVP here:

www.MyMarinHouse.com



LOOKING FOR A VACATION RENTAL OR A NEW HOME IN LAKE TAHOE/TRUCKEE?


Liz is SUPER excited to announce that she recently purchased a vacation home in Truckee, just 20 minutes from Lake Tahoe.

 

It's available as a rental, here is all the information and pictures.  Contact me for availability.  Our plan is to rent the home to friends as it truly is our 2nd home!  www.TruckeeMountainHouse.com . 

 

Liz is happy to announce a new partnership with Linda Granger, a top producing Lake Tahoe Real Estate Broker. From this point forward, I will include a link to her blog. If you would like any detailed information on homes in Lake Tahoe, let me know and I will get you in touch with Linda. You can search for Tahoe Homes directly from the Lake Tahoe Home Search and Blog:


What is happening in the Tahoe Market?


Click on the link above to view the graphs for this article: “The 2012 first quarter report also shows dips around the lake overall in regard to sales prices from one year ago, which is reflected by the median price of a home in Lake Tahoe which is now $317,000 and the average home price which is $623,645, down 25 percent and 31 percent respectively.” Read a lot more here: Lake Tahoe Real Estate:



WHAT DO CLIENTS SAY ABOUT WORKING WITH LIZ McCARTHY?


I met Liz about 5 years ago when she was hosting an open house in Greenbrae. Her sincerity, thoughtfulness, and her personable demeanor instantly struck me. I knew from the moment we met that I wanted her to represent me when I was looking for a house.


In Feb. 2012, my dream of homeownership became a reality and I was very proud to have Liz as my agent. Honestly, hiring Liz made my home buying experience a breeze and worry free. I never had to stress about the details because I knew that Liz already had things covered. Her knowledge, insight, professionalism, and experience are top notch. I would HIGHLY recommend her to anyone that is looking for an agent that will take control and ownership over the transaction with your best interests at heart and allow you to enjoy the process and not worry about the annoying headaches and details of bargaining and negotiations.”

-Adam Knepper, San Rafael Feb 2012



THE BAY AREA REAL ESTATE NEWSLETTER IS PROVIDED TO YOU BY:


If you would like to have Liz help you sell your Marin home or help you find a home, or you know of someone that could benefit from her services, just send her an email: liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com or give her a call: 415-250-4929


Be sure to check out all the other great content & features of my website:

www.BayAreaRealEstateSales.com



Liz McCarthy, PMN


Real Estate Broker, e-PRO certified

McGuire Real Estate, Top Producer and Partner

McGuire #1 Agent for Marin County 2011

2010 President Marin Women’s Council of Realtors

Top 2% of Marin agents 2011

Verified members of Marin Top Agent Network & Marin Platinum Group

415-250-4929


Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com



www.BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

www.MarinwoodRealEstateBlog.com

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/lizsmccarthy

Twitter: www.twitter.com/lizsmccarthy

DRE License Number: 01421997


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