June Marin Real Estate News

Bay Area Real Estate Sales.com Newsletter

June 2008

IN THIS ISSUE:

Marin Home Sales Statistics

Bay Area Home Prices Fall in May (but not Marin County)

Mortgage: Probably not as bad as Fed's figures make it look

Mortgage Rates Jump This Week

What Did Your Neighbors' House Sell For?

Search the Marin Multiple Listing Service for A New Home

Fast Facts

The Bay Area Real Estate Newsletter Is Provided To You By:

MARIN HOME SALES STATISTICS

By Liz McCarthy

With all the stories of foreclosures headlining the news, it is easy to overlook the signs that we may be near the bottom of the market.

According to a May 20, 2008 Bay Area Home Sales Report released by real estate news source DataQuick, "Bay Area home sales edged up from a seven-month run of record lows last month, indicating that mortgage availability and an increased number of fence sitters have decided they like today's lower prices."

In other news, a May 22, 2008 RealtyTimes article entitled, "Real Estate Outlook: Worst is Over," "The housing market offered some immediate hints of recovery with new home starts up by 8.2 percent last month [April, 2008] and building permits up by 5 percent."

The California Association of Realtors reported on May 23rd that "Home sales registered a 2.5 percent year-to-year gain compared with April 2007, ending a 30-month string of year-to-year percentage decreases that began in October 2005."

Other signs that we are at, or near, the bottom of this cycle are:

· Buy and hold investors are coming back into the market.

· Multiple offers on bank-owned properties, trophy properties, and well-priced homes in the best school districts.

· If you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to enter the market, there may not be a better time than now. Prices in some markets may not have hit their lowest point, but they probably aren't far off. In many areas, only the pace of sales has been affected while prices have held firm and in some cases, have gone up.

Below is the % of listings in escrow in each Marin County city. Anything over 25% in contract is a very healthy market in that area. Anything below 20% is a buyer's market and you will see a correlation in slow sales and high days on market.

If you would like to see all of the recent home sales (by address) in Marin my Real Estate company (Vision Real Estate) publishes these here: http://westbayre.com/frame_main.htm

MARIN HOME (CONDO + SFR) SALES STATISTICS - BY CITY AS OF 6/16/08
City	Total	Active	Number in Contract***	Percent in Contract*	Type of Market* (See Key)
Belvedere	23	19	4	17%	Strong Buyers
Corte Madera	50	36	14	28%	Buyers
Fairfax	49	41	8	16%	Strong Buyers
Greenbrae	33	26	7	21%	Buyers
Kentfield	28	22	6	21%	Buyers
Larkspur	36	30	6	17%	Strong Buyers
Mill Valley	169	127	42	25%	Buyers
Novato	456	333	123	27%	Buyers
Ross	18	14	4	22%	Buyers
San Anselmo	78	62	16	21%	Buyers
San Rafael	397	300	97	24%	Buyers
Sausalito	67	54	13	19%	Strong Buyers
Tiburon	87	79	8	9%	Extreme Buyers
Others	95	77	18	19%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 6/16/08	1586	1220	366	23.08%	Buyers
Total Marin 5/21//08	1582	1226	356	22.50%	Buyers
Total Marin 4/15/08	1375	1085	290	21.09%	Buyers
Total Marin 3/16/08	1157	913	244	21.09%	Buyers
Total Marin 2/18/08	949	742	207	21.81%	Buyers
Total Marin 1/17/08	802	674	128	15.96%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 12/18/07	932	757	175	18.78%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 11/17/07	1,146	904	242	21.12%	Buyers

MARIN HOME SALES STATISTICS - BY PRICE RANGE AS OF 6/16/08
Price	Total	Active	Number in Contract***	Percent in Contract*	Type of Market* (See Key)
$100,000-$499,999	327	203	124	38%	Sellers
$500,000-$749,999	341	275	66	19%	Strong Buyers
$750,000-$999,999	305	241	64	21%	Buyers
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	260	207	53	20%	Strong Buyers
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	134	107	27	20%	Strong Buyers
$2,000,000-$2,499,999	76	59	17	22%	Buyers
$2,500,000-$2,999,999	43	40	3	7%	Extreme Buyers
$3,000,000-$3,999,999	37	33	4	11%	Strong Buyers
Over $4,000,000	63	55	8	13%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 6/16/08	1586	1220	366	23%	Buyers

Key to market type:*
0% - 10% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Buyers	36% - 45% of Homes in Escrow: Sellers
11% - 20% of Homes in Escrow: Strong Buyers	46% - 55% of Homes in Escrow: Strong Sellers
21% - 30% of Homes in Escrow: Buyers	56% - 100% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Sellers
31% - 35% of Homes in Escrow: Balanced Market

**Based on information from Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. (BAREIS). Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed, and is subject to change and is based on one period of time."

***Includes all: Sale Pending & Contingent properties

TRENDS AT A GLANCE (Single-family Homes)
	May 08	Apr 08	May 07
Median Price:	$1,109,000	$1,020,000	$1,035,000
Average Price:	$1,469,910	$1,381,584	$1,391,841
Home Sales:	166	147	240
Sale/List Price Ratio:	96.9%	97.1%	98.8%
Days on Market:	66	75	57

Home Prices Turn Up in May

After three month's of year-over-year decreases, the median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Marin County gained 7.1%. The average price was up 5.6%.

Home sales were up 12.9% from April, but were down 30.8% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio for single-family homes fell 0.2 of a point to 96.9%.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Marin County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

May Sales Statistics (Single-family Homes)
	Prices		Unit				Change from last year
	Median	Average	Sales	DOM	SP/OLP	SP/LP	Median	Average	Sales
Marin	$1,109,000	$1,469,910	166	66	94.0%	96.9%	7.1%	5.6%	-30.8%
Belvedere	$3,300,000	$5,050,000	3	121	86.1%	87.9%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Corte Madera	$1,149,000	$1,411,350	10	42	95.9%	98.1%	24.2%	6.4%	-23.1%
Fairfax	$740,000	$887,300	5	72	94.7%	95.7%	-6.3%	-16.3%	-30.0%
Greenbrae	$1,087,500	$1,333,750	4	26	100.7%	100.7%	-25.0%	-7.5%	-33.3%
Kentfield	$3,110,000	$2,932,500	4	70	99.5%	99.5%	5.2%	-17.8%	-60.0%
Larkspur	$1,650,000	$1,704,000	5	45	94.3%	95.5%	-6.3%	6.7%	-28.6%
Mill Valley	$1,575,000	$1,747,056	27	74	92.1%	96.3%	20.2%	16.8%	-34.1%
Novato	$715,000	$816,811	27	103	89.5%	96.5%	-6.5%	-5.2%	-47.1%
Ross	$3,750,000	$4,003,000	5	25	99.9%	99.9%	-8.5%	-14.5%	0.0%
San Anselmo	$1,075,000	$1,674,833	9	45	96.1%	97.5%	24.3%	63.9%	-35.7%
San Rafael	$835,000	$888,759	44	53	95.4%	98.0%	-4.4%	-3.8%	-8.3%
Sausalito	$2,235,000	$1,955,100	5	67	93.5%	98.8%	59.4%	14.8%	-16.7%
Tiburon	$1,765,000	$2,154,879	10	51	96.6%	98.6%	-20.7%	-6.7%	-44.4%

SP/LP = Sales price divided by the listing price at the time of sale
SP/OLP =Sales price divided by the price for which the property was originally listed

May Sales Statistics (Condos/Townhomes)
	Prices		Unit				Change from last year
	Median	Average	Sales	DOM	SP/OLP	SP/LP	Median	Average	Sales
Marin	$499,000	$537,180	37	83	94.4%	97.3%	-14.6%	-15.5%	-38.3%
Corte Madera	$790,000	$790,000	1	68	97.5%	97.5%	10.5%	21.5%	-75.0%
Greenbrae	$470,000	$470,000	1	28	98.1%	98.1%	-20.3%	-18.4%	-80.0%
Mill Valley	$472,000	$509,125	4	72	98.0%	99.9%	0.6%	4.5%	0.0%
Novato	$335,000	$323,643	7	82	90.9%	100.4%	-25.9%	-32.4%	-41.7%
San Rafael	$275,000	$333,018	9	85	91.6%	94.8%	-53.0%	-41.3%	-55.0%
Sausalito	$800,000	$828,929	7	91	95.1%	96.5%	21.3%	25.7%	250.0%
Tiburon	$705,000	$750,800	5	81	94.4%	97.6%	-28.4%	-36.6%	-37.5%

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me. If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the top.

If you know of anyone who would like to receive this monthly newsletter or is thinking of either buying or selling a home please let me know. I'd love your referrals!

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

BAY AREA HOME PRICES RETURN TO RECORD LOW IN MAY

Except for Marin County!

Dattaquicknews.com June 18, 2008

La Jolla, CA.----After a record burst of activity between March and April, Bay Area home sales eased a bit last month to the slowest pace for a May in over 20 years. Sales were weakest in many higher-end coastal markets but rose well above year-ago levels in some inland areas where foreclosures and deep discounts lured bargain hunters.

A total of 6,216 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area in May. That was down 1.5 percent from 6,310 in April, and down 23.1 percent from 8,080 in May 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.

Last month was the slowest May in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988.

April had broken a seven-month string of record-low months that began after the credit crunch hit last August, where each month had the lowest sales for that particular month since 1988. April saw a record month-to-month sales increase of 28.8 percent from March. However, it appears at least a portion of the April gain was the result of escrows taking longer to close this year. Some sales that would normally have closed in March, seasonally a strong month, likely spilled into April.

In May, post-foreclosure homes continued to play a big role in the market. Across the nine-county region, 25.6 percent of the homes that resold had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, down from 26 percent in April but up from 3.3 percent a year ago.

The impact was greatest in inland counties: Solano County's foreclosure resales were 57.6 percent of the resale market; in Contra Costa they were 43.3 percent and in Sonoma 26.6 percent. It was much different on the coast, where foreclosures resales were just 5.8 percent of the resale market in San Francisco and 4.5 percent in Marin County.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $517,000 last month, down 0.2 percent from $518,000 in April, and down a record 21.7 percent from $660,000 in May last year. May's median was 22.3 percent lower than the peak $665,000 median in June and July last year. The last time the median was lower than last month's $517,000 was back in September 2004, when it was $510,000.

"We're seeing it statewide: Inland markets hit hardest by foreclosures and falling prices are now the most likely to post higher sales than last year," said Andrew LePage, an analyst for DataQuick. "These communities have been attracting first-time buyers, first-time move-up buyers and investors. Prices are getting more in line with incomes and some people feel they're getting a good, or at least a much better, deal."

"It's much different in the more expensive coastal markets," he continued. "Prices are off their peaks but typically haven't fallen as much. Foreclosures aren't rampant and so far there's been much less motivation among sellers. But demand remains weak at today's prices, and the market continues to be hampered by the credit crunch."

Marin was the ONLY County in the Bay Area that had an INCREASE in mediun Home Price.

To read the entire article: click here

MORTGAGE & FINANCE

Probably not as bad as Fed's figures make it look

Sunday, June 15, 2008

SF Chronicle Kenneth Harney

(06-15) 04:00 PDT Washington -- As a home owner, seller or buyer, what should you make of the Federal Reserve's latest bombshell report on Americans' home equity positions?

Panic? Mild concern? No big deal?

The dollar losses involved are huge and sobering. On a national basis, they document the personal financial impacts of declining home prices, especially in the frothiest boom markets of California, Florida, the Middle Atlantic states and New England.

But it's important to keep the Fed's numbers in perspective. They may not ring true in your housing situation, your neighborhood, or where you want to buy or sell. It all depends on when you bought, and where.

With that caveat in mind, here's a quick overview of the home equity estimates assembled by the Fed and released June 5:

-- To no one's surprise, home equity holdings on a national basis got creamed during the past year. Homeowners lost an estimated $879.6 billion in net equity wealth - that's the difference between the market values of their houses and their mortgage debt. In the first quarter of this year alone, $399.1 billion was estimated to be the total of national equity losses.

-- Americans' equity in their homes represented just 46.2 percent of their properties' market values during the first quarter of this year. That is, total mortgage debt exceeded owners' equity, constituting almost 54 percent of total home values.

-- The Fed's estimate of a nearly $880 billion loss of home equity wealth may strike you as shocking, but look at that number with some recent perspective. During the housing boom, nearly $3 trillion in net equity was racked up in a few years as prices exploded in markets with high levels of speculative investments powered in part by low interest rates and funny-money mortgages.

Here's a crucial fact, however: Depending on where you live or own property, these wild gyrations of equity growth, followed by equity shrinkage, may not mean a lot. Listen to Jay Brinkmann, vice president for research and economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association and an expert on real estate cycles:

"I don't think numbers like an $880 billion equity loss are all that meaningful for most individual homeowners," he said in an interview. "When you look at home price data over the last five years, you find that large parts of the country never got caught up" in the boom and bust cycle.

The losses are highly concentrated. "The Fed's (equity decline) numbers for the country as a whole are really being dragged down disproportionately by the big drops in prices in California, Florida and a handful of other states," said Brinkmann. "Most markets haven't been hit anywhere near as hard."

The latest home price index report by the federal government's monitor of property value movements, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, backs up Brinkmann's point. It found that even in the depths of the current down cycle, 56 percent of the 292 metropolitan areas it surveyed showed positive - though often small - price gains during the first quarter of this year. The agency's data cover millions of houses financed and refinanced by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but exclude jumbo loans above $417,000 and most sub-prime loans.

Some markets are appreciating strongly, such as Austin, Texas (up 7.7 percent in the last 12 months), Grand Junction, Colo. (up 9.1 percent), Charlotte, N.C. (up 6.2 percent), and Provo, Utah (up 6.8 percent).

But even in areas with steep price declines, the five-year net equity gains are still significant. If you bought a house at the peak of the cycle in dozens of high-froth markets - anytime between 2004 and 2006 - "you probably have seen some significant declines" in your equity, says David Berson, chief economist for mortgage insurer PMI Group, Inc.

"But if you bought a few years earlier, you're still probably well ahead of the game."

Five-year data from the federal housing oversight office suggest that is correct. Houses in Naples, Fla., lost 18.7 percent last year, but are still up a net 61 percent over the past five years. In California, Riverside-San Bernardino houses lost 13.8 percent last year, but are still up by a net 71.5 percent since 2003. Metropolitan Washington, D.C., houses lost an average 5.1 percent last year, but have gained a net 68 percent over the last five years.

Bottom line: National numbers - especially on the downside - get all the attention. But unless you bought at the peak of the boom in a highly volatile area using a toxic mortgage, things probably aren't anywhere near that bleak.

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

MORTGAGE RATES JUMP THIS WEEK

Rates have climbed considerably since a week ago due to continued market volatility and the 10 year Treasury yield eclipsing 4.25%. In addition there has been a flattening of the yield curve, especially between the 5 and 10 year bonds.

Here are the current rates from Sean Maley, Elite Lending Service Click Here

WHAT DID YOUR NEIGHBORS' HOUSE SELL FOR?

Are you Curious to know what the Median home price is in your neighborhood?

The Neighborhood Homes Sold listing is a weekly reader feature of the Sunday San Francisco Chronicle. The data posted here is typically recorded a few months after the property officially sold. This is the public data available in the published tax records. The home addresses, sales price, number of bedrooms, square footage and the year the homes were built are based on information supplied from Bay Area counties' property transaction records which, in some cases, may not be complete.
Previous editions of Neighborhood Homes Sold

Click on the following links to see what price homes sold for in your neighborhood:

June 15 Marin Home Sales

June 8 Marin Home Sales

June 1 Marin Home Sales

I can also send you a link to view ALL of the current and past home sales in Marin. I am not allowed to publish this data publicly, so you'll have to email me and I'll send you the link. Just click here to send me an email automatically: email

SEARCH THE MARIN MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE FOR A NEW MARIN HOME

The following links will take you to home searches for different cities in Marin.
All search results are displayed from the highest price to the lowest price. You can scroll through pages at a time.

Belvedere homes for sale: Belvedere Homes For Sale
Corte Madera homes for sale: Corte Madera Homes For Sale
Fairfax homes for Sale: Fairfax Homes For Sale
Greenbrae homes for sale: Greenbrae Homes For Sale
Kentfield homes for sale: Kentfield Homes For Sale
Larkspur homes for sale: Larkspur Homes For Sale

Mill Valley homes for sale: Mill Valley Homes For Sale
Mill Valley condos for sale: Mill Valley Homes For Sale
Novato homes for Sale: Novato Homes For Sale

Novato condoes for Sale: Novato Homes For Sale
Ross homes for sale: Ross Homes For Sale
San Anselmo homes for sale: San Anselmo Homes For Sale
San Rafael HOMES for sale: San Rafael Homes For Sale
San Rafael CONDOS for sale: San Rafael Condos For Sale
Sausalito homes for sale: Sausalito Homes For Sale
Tiburon homes for sale: Tiburon Homes For Sale

FAST FACTS

Stats:

You can download reports by actual average home prices by county, by city, Days on Market and Number of Units Sold stats:

This is VERY important information to analyze if you are looking to buy or sell a home this year.

Marin 2007 Home Sales Stats

You can find Year end 2007 stats for EVERY city in Marin by clicking here: Detailed 2007 Analysis by Marin City

Marin median SFR + condo price- May08: $875,000 2007: $973,000 / 2006: $864,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin average SFR + condo price-: May08: $1,296,000; 2007: $1,220,000 / 2006: $1,089,129 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin median SFR home price - May08: $1,115,000; 2007: $1.025,000 / 2006: $956,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin median condo price - May08: $499,000; 2007: $570,000 / 2006: $548,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Calif. median home price -Apr08: $403,870 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. highest median home price Apr08: Santa Barbara So. Coast $1,170,000 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - 1^st Quarter 08: 44 percent [Source: C.A.R.]

Mortgage rates - week ending 6/05/08: (Source: Freddie Mac)

· 30-yr. fixed: 6.09%; Fees/points: 0.6%

· 15-yr. fixed: 5.65%; Fees/points: 0.6%

THE BAY AREA REAL ESTATE NEWSLETTER IS PROVIDED TO YOU BY:

If you would like to have Liz help you sell your Marin home or help you find a home, or you know of someone that could benefit from her services, just send her an email: liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com or give her a call: 415-250-4929

"High-Touch through High-Tech": Did you know that Liz McCarthy is ePro Internet Certified by the National Association of Realtors and that 70 percent of home buyers today use the internet in their home search? Why are you still working with a Realtor who isn't a technology expert?

What this means to you:

Home Buyers: Liz is an expert in helping save you time by using the internet, email and other technology resources to help save your valuable time and money. She knows how busy you are!

Home Sellers: Liz will hire a professional photographer and market your home extensively on the internet: a personal property website (see www.417Greenfield.com or www.50milland.com for samples), she will post your home on over 50 websites.

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

Be sure to check out all the other great content & features of my website:

www.BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

Liz McCarthy

"High-Touch through "High-Tech"

Real Estate Broker, e-PRO certified

Vision Real Estate

Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

415-250-4929

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