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Bay Area Real Estate Sales.com Newsletter

May 2010


In This Month’s Issue:


How Is The Marin Real Estate Market Performing?

What’s Happening with the Economy and Interest Rates?

See Liz’s Newest Listings

Trying To Evaluate the Marin Real Estate Market?

Search the Marin Multiple Listing Service

Foreclosures/Bank Owned and Auction Properties

Looking For a Vacation Home in Lake Tahoe?

What Do Clients Say About Working With Liz McCarthy?



HOW IS THE MARIN REAL ESTATE MARKET PERFORMING?


April 2010 Closed Sales

Single Family Residences


Days on Market

List

Price

Selling Price

Average

84

$1,213,660 

$1,159,593 

Median

41

 $892,000 

 $862,500 


April 2010 Closed Sales

Condos


Days on Market

List

Price

Selling Price

Average

123

$433,818 

$422,825 

Median

78

 $381,000 

 $376,000 


The Marin County, CA Report the week of May 23rd looked at 1199 Single Family Homes on the market. The median price this week is $1,189,797. These homes have been on the market for an average of 55 days. This week median price is $1,189,797. As far as condos, this week looked at 328 condos on the market. The median price this week is $428,239. These condos have been on the market for an average of 94 days. This week median condo price is $428,239. Home prices in Marin County have stayed relatively stable in recent weeks.


The median price for homes went back over $800,000 in April to $865,000. That was good for an 8.1% increase over last April. The median price for condos rose 7.9% year-over-year.


Sales of single-family, re-sale homes and condos continued rising in April, with home sales up 48.6% year-over-year and condo sales up 15.8%.


Year-to-date, home sales are up 54.8% and condo sales are up 14.5%.


For the single family home market there are some encouraging signs that buyers are back in the market. One of the ways we look at activity is to see how many listed homes are in contract at any point in time.

 

Chart of Single Family Home Marin Sales Stats

Marin Singe Family Home Sales 5.2010


Chart of Marin Condo Home Sales Stats

Marin Condo Sales 5.2010

 

Total number Homes listed for sale as versus total number of homes in contract

One of the best ways to evaluate the market is by looking at how many homes are in contract versus how many are listed. This percentage gives a very quick and dirty view of the health of the market in that particular city and prince range. After reviewing this calculation per city, you also need to drill down into the price segments to see what prices are selling and what priced homes are not selling.


In the charts below you will find a break down by Marin city and price range of how many homes are in contract compared to how many homes are listed.


The overall Marin market cooled a bit from last month and edged just slightly into the Buyers Market from last month’s “Balanced Market” category. Even though the inventory has gone up recently, the amount of homes in contract has increased proportionally, which means the overall market has remained decent.


Analysis by Price Range:

Homes priced under $500,000 are selling extremely quickly “Strong Sellers” Market, especially in Novato and parts of San Rafael, often times with cash offers being made by investors. Homes priced from $501K - $749K cooled down a bit from last months “Sellers” Market and are now “Balanced”. All homes priced over $750,000 are in varying degrees of “Buyers” markets, home priced from $1.5M - $1.999 heated up a bit from last month. Note that there seems to be more excess inventory for homes priced over $2,000,000 - $3,999,000 which are in a “Strong Buyers”; Market Homes over $4,000,000 are in an “Extreme Buyers Market”



Analysis by City: Currently (as of May 28th, 2010), Corte Madera, Greenbrae, and Novato are all in Sellers Market and Novato, not surprisingly as it’s had the largest over all price reduction is close to a Strong Sellers Market. Ross, Belvedere, Sausalito and Tiburon are both in “Strong Buyers” markets, as not many homes have been going into escrow in these towns.. You would also expect that the higher priced communities (Tiburon, Sausalito, Ross, Mill Valley, Kentfield and Belvedere) would show slower absorption of homes through the sales cycle as well as a lower percentage of those in contract.



MARIN HOME (CONDO + SFR) SALES STATISTICS - BY CITY AS OF 5/28/10


City


Total


Active

Number in Contract***

Percent in Contract*

Type of Market*

(See Key)

Belvedere

37

30

7

19%

Strong Buyers

Corte Madera

53

33

20

38%

Sellers

Fairfax

38

28

10

26%

Buyers

Greenbrae

47

30

17

36%

Sellers

Kentfield

43

32

11

26%

Buyers

Larkspur

43

29

14

33%

Balanced

Mill Valley

213

166

47

22%

Buyers

Novato

340

197

143

42%

Sellers

Ross

23

19

4

17%

Strong Buyers

San Anselmo

96

67

29

30%

Buyers

San Rafael

394

261

133

34%

Balanced

Sausalito

98

80

18

18%

Strong Buyers

Tiburon

117

95

22

19%

Strong Buyers

Others

117

96

21

18%

Strong Buyers

Total Marin 5/28/10

1659

1183

476

28.69

Buyers

Total Marin 4/28/10

1578

1080

498

31.56%

Balanced

Total Marin 3/15/10

1211

801

410

33.86%

Balanced

Total Marin 2/14/10

1098

712

386

35.15%

Balanced

Total Marin 1/14/10

717

477

240

33.47%

Balanced

Total Marin 12/17/09

1090

676

414

37.98%

Sellers

Total Marin 10/14/09

1529

1038

491

32.11%

Balanced

Total Marin 8/19/09

1533

1070

463

30.2%

Buyers

Total Marin 7/23/09

1533

1097

436

28.44%

Buyers


MARIN HOME SALES STATISTICS - BY PRICE RANGE AS OF 5/28/10


Price


Total


Active

Number in Contract***

Percent in Contract*

Type of Market*

(See Key)

$100,000-$499,999

358

185

173

48%

Strong Sellers

$500,000-$749,999

373

246

127

34%

Balanced

$750,000-$999,999

304

218

86

28%

Buyers

$1,000,000-$1,499,999

262

209

53

20%

Strong Buyers

$1,500,000-$1,999,999

140

111

29

21%

Buyers

$2,000,000-$2,499,999

68

57

11

16%

Strong Buyers

$2,500,000-$2,999,999

42

37

5

12%

Strong Buyers

$3,000,000-$3,999,999

48

39

9

19%

Strong Buyers

Over $4,000,000

64

61

3

5%

Extreme Buyers

Total

1659

1163

496

30%

Buyers


*Key to market type:

0% - 10% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Buyers

36% - 45% of Homes in Escrow: Sellers

11% - 20% of Homes in Escrow: Strong Buyers

46% - 55% of Homes in Escrow: Strong Sellers

21% - 30% of Homes in Escrow: Buyers

56% - 100% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Sellers

31% - 35% of Homes in Escrow: Balanced Market


**Based on information from Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. (BAREIS). Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed, and is subject to change and is based on one period of time.”

***Includes all: Sale Pending & Contingent properties


The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me. If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the top.


If you know of anyone who would like to receive this monthly newsletter or is thinking of either buying or selling a home please let me know. I’d love your referrals!


WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH THE ECONOMY AND INTEREST RATES?


Mortgage News Update 5/31/2010


5 year fixed: 40 year amortization.

Loan amounts to $ 4,000,000

4.25% at 1 point.


One KEY development is the adoption by all investors of the Fannie Mae Loan Quality Initiative starting with ALL loan applications dated 6/1/10.  The investor has the right to pull an updated credit report just before FUNDING the loan to confirm there are no additional liabilities when the application began.  It is imperative that we inform ALL of our clients about keeping things “clean” through the entire process so we don’t get held up at funding with another underwrite of the loan file.  So what this means is that if you are in the process of getting a home loan, DON’T make any big purchases until after your loan closes.


Economic Update:


Consumer confidence is expected to continue to increase, which helps spending. This is always helped by the employment picture, and nonfarm payroll numbers are improving. In fact, it has been up for four months in a row. And core retail sales are on their way up. But economists feel that with spending currently outpacing income growth and the impending wind-down of Census hiring, the current pace in consumer confidence will likely be unsustainable. We'll see!


If people are confident, often times it will overcome the reality of not having a job, or having a house underwater. And given that consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP here in the US, confident consumers are important to our economy. Consumer sentiment and confidence surveys hit bottom in late 2008 and early 2009, and have trended higher in the last year. The Unemployment Rate tends to be a concurrent indicator in downturns, but a lagging indicator in recoveries, leading to apparent differences between the actual GDP of the US and consumer confidence. Folks are more likely to react to positive news as economic growth increases, especially if employment is growing.

  

How about this market? It certainly makes us appreciate a quiet market, as yesterday we saw more volatility after China calmed everyone down by saying it wouldn't sell European debt. (It is hard to know if they will or they won't.)  Even oil is volatile, with the price per barrel once again over $75. The best thing one can say about this week's Treasury auctions is that they are over with. With rates moving up, and bond prices moving down, originators did some selling, and MBS volumes picked up. Traders estimate about $3 billion came out of lenders. Fortunately, as one would expect, mortgage prices did better than Treasury prices. Still, by the end of the day, after many investors changed prices, 30-yr mortgages were worse by more than .5 or .75 (the 10-yr Treasury was worse by well over a point).

Today is the last business day of May. A critical component of any recovery is the establishment of household incomes improving. Tax receipts are up, indicating that someone's income is going up although unemployment is still high. (Stay tuned for next Friday's unemployment data, expected to show a large nonfarm payroll gain!) Coming in about as expected, April's Personal Income was +.4% and Personal Income/Consumption was unchanged. It is always nice to see savings is picking up although it is at the expense of consumption.

 

Information curtsey of Sean Murphy, RPM Mortgage: 415-710-6342



SEE LIZ’S NEWEST LISTINGS

Liz has 1 home currently listed and has already closed over $5,500,000 in sales for in 2010!


Just Listed:

35 Bayview Ave, Mill Valley

$1,995,000

This home is not currently on the MLS

5 Bedrooms and 3 bedrooms

http://www.35Bayview.com


This beautifully updated and light-filled home is ideally located just steps from Mill Valley's restaurants, theatres, schools and shops. Enjoy the beautiful flowering gardens and stone patios. This five bedroom, three bathroom home also includes a media room and office or playroom perfect for flexible living, privacy and serenity. The recently remodeled kitchen opens up to a sunny deck that overlooks downtown Mill Valley and the adjacent hills. Limestone entry, hardwood and bamboo floors, designer paint colors and space for a wine cellar. French doors from master bedroom lead to gardens. Downstairs has a private separate entrance as well as a two car garage. This property rates a Walk Score of 97 out of 100, a Walkers Paradise. Top rated Mill Valley schools and just a short commute to San Francisco make this house ideally situated.



Liz Just Sold:

10 La Rosa, Larkspur $2,400,000

20 Elizabeth Place, Inverness $1,200,000

100 Rockrose Way, Novato $810,000

67 Pinheiro Circle, Novato $656,500

55 Buena Vista, Novato $520,000



TRYING TO EVALUATE THE MARIN REAL ESTATE MARKET?


I’ve mentioned in the past, I’m constantly on the look out for information to better prepare my clients to understand the local real estate market. I’ve got 2 great new stat evaluation programs that I’m providing FREE of charge to my clients and viewers of my newsletter!


1. FREE NEIGHBORHOOD EVALUATION REPORT:


If you would like a personalized Market evaluation of YOUR home, within minutes of submitting your request, or if you are a home Buyer and want to do a Market Snapshot of a particular zip code, that works too! Check it out, I PROMISE you you’ll love what you see! These reports will include recent comp data, charts, trends and more. You will receive an updated neighborhood report every month with upgraded comp data:

Free Marin Neighborhood Report


  1. FREE HOME VALUATION REPORT TOOL:


Not as graphically pretty as the above report, but will actually give you a VALUE of YOUR home. Additionally, you can make changes to your “home” which will change your homes valuation. This is nice for running scenarios (like do I add on to my house to make it bigger or add bedrooms?) This report will give you an instant home valuation. You do have the option of entering your email address to receive updates of when new homes sell.

Free Marin Home Value Report


3. DETAILED MARKET EVALUATION REPORT BY CITY:


Fabulous stats program that breaks down city statics. Will show you weekly average and median prices, days on market, Additionally, you can sign up to receive a detailed weekly market update of your interested city. Whenever you view this page the graphics will automatically update to the most current data, so check back often, or even better, sign up to receive alerts of when new statics are released by city.

FREE Statistical Reports by Marin Town



Of course, if you have any questions please call me at 415-250-4929 or drop me an email at Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com



NEW STATE TAX CREDIT AND MORTGAGE DEBT RELIEF


A new California State Tax credit was put into place that and is to start on May 1st for First Time Home Buyers and Buyers of new homes. Trying to figure out if you qualify for any of the tax credits? The State and Federal Tax credits may be a bit confusing to home buyers, if you are confused, I have a great spreadsheet to explain who qualifies for what credit and when the deadlines are. Click on the following link to view a clear Tax credit chart.


Additionally, on Monday 4/12/2010, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, signed the Bill SB401 which will eliminate state taxes on forgiven mortgage debt from 2009 through the end of 2012. The US Government has already put this in place. A big relief for California homeowners who have a loan modification, short sale or foreclosure. You can find out more here:

http://www.ftb.ca.gov/aboutFTB/Newsroom/Mortgage_Debt_Relief_Law.shtml



FORECLOSURES/BANK OWNED AND AUCTION PROPERTIES


Type

Number as of 5/28/10

Pre-foreclosure

477

Auction Sale

484

Bank Owned

395

TOTAL

1356


Marin home foreclosures




I can provide you a list of all of the current properties in any of the above types anywhere in Marin.


I’ve been tracking the Foreclosure data since April of 2009. The overall chart above shows a slow and steady rise in the number of Bank owned, Notice of Default (pre-foreclosure) and Auction sale properties. .


I have access to all of these homes!! If you would like me to pull a more customized list for any town in Marin that will show: Pre-foreclosure, Auction and/or Bank owned properties, just email me: Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com



FREE…..You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes


Back to top


SEARCH THE MARIN MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE


The following links will take you to home searches for different cities in Marin.
All search results are displayed from the highest price to the lowest price. You can scroll through pages at a time.

Belvedere Homes For Sale

Corte Madera Homes For Sale

Fairfax Homes For Sale

Greenbrae Homes For Sale

Kentfield Homes For Sale

Larkspur Homes For Sale

Mill Valley Homes For Sale

Mill Valley Condos For Sale

Novato Homes For Sale

Novato Condos

Ross Homes For Sale

San Anselmo Homes For Sale

San Rafael Homes For Sale

San Rafael Condos For Sale

Sausalito Homes For Sale

Tiburon Homes For Sale

Marin Luxury homes priced over $2M - $3M Marin Luxury Home Search:

Marin homes priced over $3M Marin Luxury Home Search:

Floating Homes for sale: Sausalito House Boats


Back to top


LOOKING FOR A VACATION HOME IN LAKE TAHOE?

Lake Tahoe

Liz is happy to announce a new partnership with Linda Granger, a top Lake Tahoe Real Estate Broker. From this point forward, I will include a link to her blog. If you would like any detailed information on homes in Lake Tahoe, let me know and I will get you in touch with Linda. You can search for Tahoe Homes directly from the Lake Tahoe Home Search:


Summer is just around the corner and Lake Tahoe is the place to be! There are all sorts of fun activities in the area during the next few months. For the athletes, there are several running and biking events and the Donner Lake triathlon is in July. For the music lovers, there are some fantastic music and art festivals in the area. Reno has fun activities scheduled throughout the summer too including the Reno Rodeo, Art Town, Hot August Nights, and the Balloon Races. Click the Tahoe link for more information about any of these fun summer events!

How is the Tahoe Real Estate Market Performing?
The Truckee/Tahoe area is continuing to see quite a bit of activity with home sales. 72 single family homes sold during the month of April 2010! Most home sales took place in Tahoe Donner (22 homes sold) and Truckee (25 homes sold). The price range that saw the most activity was $300K-$499K with 24 homes selling in this price range. 12 homes sold for $299K or under, 13 in the $500-$699K range, and 14 in the $700K-$899K range. 9 homes sold for over $1 million and 3 of these were over $2 million. There were also 28 condos that sold last month. 

This information was taken from the Tahoe Sierra multiple listing service and is for the dates of April 1-30, 2010. Click the link below to see all stats in a chart:

To read more Lake Tahoe Real estate Facts, click here



WHAT DO CLIENTS SAY ABOUT WORKING WITH LIZ MCCARTHY?


Sold in Novato After renting in Marin County for almost 30 years and a couple of tentative ventures into the home buying market over the years, my husband and I decided the time was right to finally buy a house.  While casually visiting an open house in Fairfax, we met Liz McCarthy.  We weren’t quite ready to choose a realtor to work with yet. 


A few weeks later, the 1st weekend we started seriously looking, we found a house in Petaluma we loved.  We didn’t have an agent yet, but Liz was the first person that came to mind. We quickly interviewed a couple of agents and Liz’ style just clicked with ours. She was so friendly, personable, knowledgeable and professional!  She was flexible and willing to work with a mortgage broker unknown to her, which was very important to us.  Liz jumped right in and got to work on getting us more information on the house we were looking at; she also helped us to think carefully about whether this was the right house for us or not.  Ultimately, though we loved the house, we decided we weren’t ready to make an offer on a house in Petaluma – a further commute for me.  


So began our relationship with Liz.  She did a wonderful job keeping us up-to-date on homes coming on the market and new open houses.  We focused our search in Novato and Terra Linda.  After about a month of searching, we saw a new listing in Novato and promptly set up a visit with Liz.  We liked the house a lot – only 6 years old, and a foreclosure that looked like a particularly good deal, though we didn’t make an offer right away.  But someone else DID.   So Liz went to work with us pulling together an offer in less than 24 hours, followed by our nervously-decided best-and-final offer a day later.  Our offers were so close that they chose ours based on the seller’s agent having worked with Liz before!  How serendipitous was that?  Then we had a 28-day closing to negotiate!  And this was our first home-buying experience.  Liz blazed a path for us every step of the way, and discovered hidden connections with our mortgage broker as well.  Our new home is getting new paint and carpet; we’ll be moving in 2 weeks.  We can’t wait to invite Liz back for our house warming!”

-Daphne Hatch and Bill Shook, Novato (April 2010)



THE BAY AREA REAL ESTATE NEWSLETTER IS PROVIDED TO YOU BY:


If you would like to have Liz help you sell your Marin home or help you find a home, or you know of someone that could benefit from her services, just send her an email: liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com or give her a call: 415-250-4929


Be sure to check out all the other great content & features of my website:

www.BayAreaRealEstateSales.com



Liz McCarthy, PMN


Real Estate Broker, e-PRO certified

McGuire Real Estate

415-250-4929


Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

www.BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

BLOG: http://bayarearealestatesales.blogspot.com/

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/lizsmccarthy

Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lizsmccarthy


DRE License Number: 01421997


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