Marin Real Estate

Marin Home Stats - March 2008

Bay Area Real Estate Sales.com Newsletter

March 2008

IN THIS ISSUE:

Marin Home Sales Statistics

More Detailed Analysis Of The February Marin Market

Marin Year End 2007 Home Sales Statistics Are In!

San Anselmo Sales Price Peaks In 2007

How Does The Recent Change Of Conforming Loan Limit Affect You?

2007 Cost Vs Value Remodeling Report Now Available

What Did Your Neighbors' House Sell For?

Search The Marin Multiple Listing Service For A New Marin Home

Fast Facts

MARIN HOME SALES STATISTICS

By Liz McCarthy

There is a lot of great information contained in this month's newsletter. I hope you find it informative.

Wow, hard to believe but Corte Madera and Fairfax are doing quite well this month. Corte Madera is actually in a "sellers" market, meaning that the difference between the homes that are available for sale and the ones that are in contract is 39%. Meaning there isn't a lot to choose from in Corte Madera. On the other hand Belvedere and homes priced over $4M are in an Extreme Buyers market, meaning that there are a lot of homes to choose from. The overall Marin Home Real Estate Market is currently in a "Buyers" market. But it really is important to review your price range and the town that you are looking to purchase/sell in.

See below for all of the stats by price range and by town.

If you would like to see all of the recent home sales (by address) in Marin my Real Estate company (Vision Real Estate) publishes these here: http://westbayre.com/frame_main.htm

I've just published the 2007 Home Price Data for Marin on my web-site, You'll find a lot of great information there. Here's the link:

Marin 2007 Home Sales Stats

MARIN HOME (CONDO + SFR) SALES STATISTICS - BY CITY AS OF 3/16/07
City	Total	Active	Number in Contract***	Percent in Contract*	Type of Market* (See Key)
Belvedere	20	18	2	10%	Extreme Buyers
Corte Madera	31	19	12	39%	Sellers
Fairfax	17	11	6	35%	Balanced
Greenbrae	16	14	2	13%	Strong Buyers
Kentfield	29	23	6	21%	Buyers
Larkspur	30	22	8	27%	Buyers
Mill Valley	114	89	25	22%	Buyers
Novato	375	294	81	22%	Buyers
Ross	11	9	2	18%	Strong Buyers
San Anselmo	51	42	9	18%	Strong Buyers
San Rafael	295	235	60	20%	Strong Buyers
Sausalito	56	44	12	21%	Buyers
Tiburon	63	52	11	17%	Strong Buyers
Others	49	41	8	16%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 3/16/07	1157	913	244	21.09%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 2/18/07	949	742	207	21.81%	Buyers
Total Marin 1/17/07	802	674	128	15.96%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 12/18/07	932	757	175	18.78%	Strong Buyers
Total Marin 11/17/07	1,146	904	242	21.12%	Buyers

MARIN HOME SALES STATISTICS - BY PRICE RANGE AS OF 3/16/07
Price	Total	Active	Number in Contract***	Percent in Contract*	Type of Market* (See Key)
$100,000-$499,999	246	186	60	24%	Buyers
$500,000-$749,999	266	213	53	20%	Strong Buyers
$750,000-$999,999	221	168	53	24%	Buyers
$1,000,000-$1,499,999	185	143	42	23%	Buyers
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	78	65	13	17%	Strong Buyers
$2,000,000-$2,499,999	44	36	8	18%	Strong Buyers
$2,500,000-$2,999,999	42	34	8	19%	Strong Buyers
$3,000,000-$3,999,999	35	30	5	14%	Strong Buyers
Over $4,000,000	40	38	2	5%	Extreme Buyers
Total Marin 2/18/07	1157	913	244	21%	Buyers

Key to market type:*
0% - 10% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Buyers	36% - 45% of Homes in Escrow: Sellers
11% - 20% of Homes in Escrow: Strong Buyers	46% - 55% of Homes in Escrow: Strong Sellers
21% - 30% of Homes in Escrow: Buyers	56% - 100% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Sellers
31% - 35% of Homes in Escrow: Balanced Market

**Based on information from Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. (BAREIS). Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed, and is subject to change and is based on one period of time."

***Includes all: Sale Pending & Contingent properties

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE FEBRUAY MARIN MARKET

Home sales re-bounded from the record low set in January. Sales of existing single-family homes rose 13.6% from January, but were off 34.3% year-over-year.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Marin County fell 11.2% from January, and were off 2.2% year-over-year.

The median price for condos dropped 29% to $435,000 compared to January, and it was up 21.1%, year-over-year. The average price lost 24.5% to $536,287. Year-over-year, the average price was off 17.4%. Condo sales were up 68.8% from January, but down 32.5% year-over-year.

I wanted to give everyone an update on what is happening in the Marin County Market as of March 13, 2008. The Market in Marin is quite buoyant no matter what you are hearing from sources outside of Marin County. Higher priced homes are moving briskly and the ones where buyers are sensitive to the increased standards from lenders are hurting- those from $800,000 to $1,500,000. Even through the total number of homes sold are down over 40% median prices are increasing in many cities and where we have declines they are based upon a small population of sales which distort the numbers as we are looking at 2.5 months of sales.

Here are the details:

CITY	MEDIAN PRICE 3/08	MEDIAN PRICE 3/07	# SOLD 2008	# SOLD 2007
Mill Valley	$1,204,000	$1,227,000	27	50
Larkspur	1,824,500	1,300,000	4	7
Corte Madera	862,500	994,500	8	16
Tiburon	2,135,000	2,690,000	14	19
Belvedere	2,525,000	3,439,000	2	7
Fairfax	672,000	735,000	11	15
Greenbrae	2,113,000	1,215,000	3	22
Kentfield	2,060,000	2,175,000	4	10
Ross	3,900,000	1,910,000	6	4
Sausalito	1,850,000	1,300,000	5	13
Novato	679,000	734,500	46	68
San Rafael	897,500	850,000	52	80

It is evident that the correction in the market that started almost 24 months ago is still under way, especially in the cities of Novato, Fairfax, Belvedere, Mill Valley, Kentfield and Corte Madera where the median price has declined. Even though we have seen the median prices decline for single family homes from year over year dates it is a little misleading unless you look at the details by city. Here are the results.

As you can see we have some impressive changes in the median prices form year over year. It is evident in the community of real estate professionals that higher priced homes in Marin are the ones that are selling. The median prices have increased dramatically in the towns of Larkspur, Sausalito, Greenbrae, San Rafael and Ross with declines in median prices in Mill Valley, Corte Madera, Belvedere, Fairfax, Kentfield and Novato.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Marin County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

FEBRUARY SALES STATISTICS (SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES)
	Prices		Unit			Change from last year
City	Median	Average	Sales	DOM	SP/LP	Median	Average	Sales
Marin	$932,000	$1,372,563	92	100	94.7%	-2.2%	7.7%	-34.3%
Belvedere	-	-	-	-	-	n/a	n/a	n/a
Corte Madera	$862,500	$895,000	4	43	109.0%	-20.9%	-19.0%	-50.0%
Fairfax	$630,000	$692,500	5	68	99.2%	-6.3%	-16.3%	-30.0%
Greenbrae	$2,113,200	$2,113,200	1	22	96.5%	68.4%	48.3%	-88.9%
Kentfield	$2,495,000	$2,495,000	1	70	100.0%	-40.6%	-24.4%	-66.7%
Larkspur	$2,150,000	$2,150,000	1	126	94.5%	70.4%	70.4%	-50.0%
Mill Valley	$1,063,500	$1,205,594	8	65	98.7%	-5.5%	-15.0%	-68.0%
Novato	$740,000	$820,559	17	94	93.6%	-0.3%	0.7%	-39.3%
Ross	$6,750,000	$5,916,250	4	129	88.5%	342.6%	288.0%	300.0%
San Anselmo	$929,000	$1,110,409	11	90	95.4%	-16.3%	-10.6%	-26.7%
San Rafael	$924,000	$1,095,833	26	101	97.3%	11.9%	2.9%	4.0%
Sausalito	-	-	-	-	-	n/a	n/a	n/a
Tiburon	$2,600,000	$2,592,039	6	125	94.3%	42.1%	-6.7%	-14.3%

FEBRUARY SALES STATISTICS (CONDOS/TOWNHOMES)
	Prices		Unit			Change from last year
	Median	Average	Sales	DOM	SP/LP	Median	Average	Sales
Marin	$435,000	$536,287	27	102	96.6%	-21.1%	-17.4%	-32.5%
Corte Madera	-	-	-	-	-	n/a	n/a	n/a
Greenbrae	$517,750	$555,917	6	74	95.7%	15.1%	15.2%	20.0%
Mill Valley	$762,500	$867,500	4	96	96.4%	29.0%	6.0%	-33.3%
Novato	$358,250	$363,583	9	124	97.4%	-24.1%	-24.0%	0.0%
San Rafael	$395,000	$366,667	3	156	93.5%	-37.9%	-42.2%	-66.7%
Sausalito	$785,500	$785,500	2	52	97.1%	7.6%	7.6%	0.0%
Tiburon	-	-	-	-	-	n/a	n/a	n/a

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me. If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the top.

If you know of anyone who would like to receive this monthly newsletter or is thinking of either buying or selling a home please let me know. I'd love your referrals!

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

MARIN YEAR END 2007 HOME SALES STATISTICS ARE IN!

I have all sorts of great stats for my clients to review.

You can download reports by actual average home prices by county, by city, Days on Market and Number of Units Sold stats:

You can see median home prices by city evaluated by 2 local appraisers by clicking on the following link.

This is VERY important information to analyze if you are looking to buy or sell a home this year.

Marin 2007 Home Sales Stats

I can also send you a link to view ALL of the current and past home sales in Marin. I am not allowed to publish this data publicly, so you’ll have to email me and I’ll send you the link. Just click here to send me an email automatically: email

SAN ANSELMO SALES PRICE PEAKS IN 2007

Here's an example of the Home Stats for San Anselmo:

(Remember, you can find data like this for EVERY city in Marin by clicking here: Detailed 2007 Analysis by Marin City

Median hits $950,000

In SAN ANSELMO, there were 208 sales in 2005, 164 sales in 2006 and 160 sales in 2007, representing a drop of 23 percent from 2005 to 2007 but also demonstrating a consistent market from 2006 to 2007.

In this three year period, the overall median sales price peaked in 2007 at $950,000 which was a 2 percent gain from 2005. The median dwelling size in 2007 was1677 square feet and the days on market was 56 days which was relatively unchanged from the previous two years.

The $500,000 - $1,000,000 price range accounted for 57 percent of all sales in San Anselmo. This lower segment of the market saw median prices go from $780,500 in 2005 up to $810,000 in 2006 and then down slightly to $799,500 in 2007 which was an overall 2.4 percent increase from 2005. From 2005 to 2007, the median days on market went from 41 days to 50 days (an increase of almost 22 percent) and percent of asking price went from over 101 percent down to 99 percent.

The $1m - $2m segment accounted for 37.5 percent of all sales. In this range, there was a 4 percent decline in median sales price from 2005 to 2007 (from $1,250,000 to $1,197,000) and marketing time increased 24 percent (56 days) for the same time period. The percent of asking price remained consistent at 99 percent.

A comparison of the median sales price from the first half of 2007 to the second half of the year, shows that the median sales prices in both the under $1m price range and the $1m - $2m range increased. In the lower range, the increase was 4 percent to $819,000. In the higher range, the increase was 4.75 percent to $1,250,000. These gains late in '07 combined with San Anselmo's modest gain of 2 percent in the overall median sales price from 2005 - 2007 add up to a very stable market.

The overall Average home price for Marin in 2007 was: $1,223,933

The Average home price for Mill Valley in 2007 was: $1,400,526 up from 2006

393 homes were sold in Mill Valley in 2007 as compared to 419 in 2006.

HOW DOES THE RECENT CHANGE OF CONFORMING LOAN LIMIT AFFECT YOU?

Liz recently interviewed Mortgage Advisor Lee Aubry of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage about the recent rate changes and how it affects you:

Mortgage interest rates increasing remind me of a roller coaster ride. While rates are frequently higher than low points we have experienced in recent years, in general mortgage interest rates are still very good by historical standards.

Many lenders including Wells Fargo have introduced a new "jumbo conforming" loan in response to the economic stimulus package. This authorized a temporary increase in the conforming loan limit. The terms of these loans are a work in process, and the pricing is still high because investors are not ready to buy them. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are working through their own financial challenges. Wall Street is not ready to get back into the mortgage buying business. Without a pool of investors interested in buying these loans, the rates will remain high.

In addition to the liquidity crisis, lenders have not fully recovered from losses due to poor credit performance. Underwriting standards and lending guidelines are increasingly more conservative.

The Fed's attempt to restore liquidity in the capital markets is helping to keep rates down. At the same time, the Fed's lowering of the federal funds rate is actually putting upward pressure on mortgage interest rates due to inflation. Inflation errodes the value of bonds and this hurts bond yields which influence mortgage interest rates. Many economists are wondering if we will experience prolonged "stagflation".

Although the markets seem to be operating in and out of panic mode, there are still very good loans and rates for credit worthy customers! There is potential for lower rates to come.

Q: What will the interest rate spread be between a conforming and jumbo loan?

Rates are highly volatile for reasons mentioned above. The spread can easily fluctuate between 1% to 1.5%.

Q: How hard will it be to get a new conforming loan?

Underwriting will be much tighter for the new conforming loans. The pricing for riskier features such as stated income, interest only, non-owner occupied properties, cash-out, or units will probably increase before it comes back down.

Q: When does it make sense to look into refinancing ones home?

In today's market it is important to be prepared for a refinance. Get ready by: building liquid reserves, paying down credit card balances below 33% of the maximum credit limit, and more than ever fixing credit issues to get your FICO score as high as possible. Scores below 700 are a problem. Call your mortgage consultant and get an application going before rates hit a dip so that you are ready to lock.

Q: What do do you see interest rates doing for the next year?

I expect volatility to continue. As long as there is liquidity in the capital markets a weakening economy could lower rates. But the market is reacting to conflicting pressures. All things being equal rates should fall due in response to a weak economy. Inflation and the loss of liquidity in the capital markets are keeping rates high. Rates will continue to move in response to the state of the economy, the Fed's intervention in the capital markets, inflation, government policy, and lenders ability to sell loans in the secondary market.

Lee Aubry, from Wells Fargo Home loans can be reached at: 415-717-3131

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

2007 COST VS VALUE REMODELING REPORT NOW AVAILABLE

If you would like your OWN copy of the full report, please email me. Copy write laws prohibit me from publishing this data on my website. email

Each year since 1988, REMODELING's Cost vs. Value Report has compared construction costs for common remodeling projects with the value they add at resale in 60 U.S. housing markets. This year's Report has all 15 legacy projects (formerly, 10 were surveyed each year in rotation), plus the "upscale" versions of 5 projects introduced two years ago. New this year are upscale versions of roofing and siding replacement projects.

The reason this report is so helpful to homeowners and home buyers, it can give you some estimates of what remodeling projects will cost and what you can expect to recoup at resale. It's important to note that the report is specific to the San Francisco Bay Area. Here are some facts from the report:

Job	Cost	Value	Cost Recouped
Major Kitchen Remodel-Upscale	$123,476	$126,779	102.7%
Major Kitchen Remodel - Mid-range	$64,617	$69,518	$107.6%
Master Suite Addition - Upscale	$265,265	$227,096	85.6%
Master Suite Addition - Mid-Range	$125,837	$132,667	105.4%

Other projects that are included in the report: window replacement, bathroom additions/remodel, roofing, garage addition and more. Due to copyright issues, I am unable to display the entire San Francisco Bay Area Region Report on my website. I would be more than happy to email you the report, just send me a quick email with the subject: REPORT

What Do the Numbers Mean?

If some cost figures appear too high or too low, one cause is the leveling effect of averaging. High demand for remodeling services in some parts of a given metro area may drive prices up, but this is often countered by lower demand - and lower prices - in another part of the same city. Also, seemingly small differences in size, scope, or quality of finishes can dramatically affect final project cost.

Averaging also affects the "value" side of the equation. In an actual real estate transaction, the amount recouped for a given remodeling project depends on the condition of the rest of the house, as well as the value of similar homes nearby and the rate at which property values are changing in the surrounding area. Location in an urban, suburban, or rural setting will also affect a home's value, as will the availability and pricing of new and existing homes in the immediate vicinity.

In some cases, the value of the remodeling project at resale is more than 100% of its original cost. This usually happens in markets where property values are rising very rapidly, but it can also occur when buyers regard certain types of remodeling projects as "standard." For example, in a neighborhood where most houses have two bathrooms, adding a bath to a home that has just one may increase the resale value of the home beyond the cost of construction. In fact, not adding the bath could cause the home to sit on the market for much longer than is normal and to eventually sell for less than similar homes in the area.

When resale value is a major factor in a homeowner's decision to remodel, the best course of action is to consult with a local remodeler about construction cost, and ask an experienced Realtor about home prices in the neighborhood.

Again, I'll send you the report for free. Just email me by clicking on the following: Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com and ask for the Report.

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

WHAT DID YOUR NEIGHBORS' HOUSE SELL FOR?

Are you Curious to know what the Median home price is in your neighborhood?

The Neighborhood Homes Sold listing is a weekly reader feature of the Sunday San Francisco Chronicle. The data posted here is typically recorded a few months after the property officially sold. This is the public data available in the published tax records. The home addresses, sales price, number of bedrooms, square footage and the year the homes were built are based on information supplied from Bay Area counties' property transaction records which, in some cases, may not be complete.
Previous editions of Neighborhood Homes Sold

Click on the following links to see what price homes sold for in your neighborhood:

Mar 16 Marin Home Sales

Mar 09 Marin Home Sales

Feb 2 Marin Home Sales

Feb 24 Marin Home Sales

I can also send you a link to view ALL of the current and past home sales in Marin. I am not allowed to publish this data publicly, so you'll have to email me and I'll send you the link. Just click here to send me an email automatically: email

SEARCH THE MARIN MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE FOR A NEW MARIN HOME

The following links will take you to home searches for different cities in Marin.
All search results are displayed from the highest price to the lowest price. You can scroll through pages at a time.

Belvedere homes for sale: Belvedere Homes For Sale
Corte Madera homes for sale: Corte Madera Homes For Sale
Fairfax homes for Sale: Fairfax Homes For Sale
Greenbrae homes for sale: Greenbrae Homes For Sale
Kentfield homes for sale: Kentfield Homes For Sale
Larkspur homes for sale: Larkspur Homes For Sale
Mill Valley homes for sale: Mill Valley Homes For Sale
Novato homes for Sale: Novato Homes For Sale
Ross homes for sale: Ross Homes For Sale
San Anselmo homes for sale: San Anselmo Homes For Sale
San Rafael HOMES for sale: San Rafael Homes For Sale
San Rafael CONDOS for sale: San Rafael Condos For Sale
Sausalito homes for sale: Sausalito Homes For Sale
Tiburon homes for sale: Tiburon Homes For Sale

FAST FACTS

Marin median SFR + condo price- Feb08: $835,000 2007: $899,000 / 2006: $864,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin average SFR + condo price-: Feb08: $1,177,000; 2007: $1,220,000 / 2006: $1,089,129 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin median SFR home price - Feb08: $929 ,000; 2007: $1.025,000 / 2006: $956,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Marin median condo price - Feb08: $445,000; 2007: $570,000 / 2006: $548,000 [Source: BAREIS]

Calif. median home price -Jan08: $430,370 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. highest median home price Jan08: Santa Barbara So. Coast $1,135,000 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region Dec 07: High Desert $234,310 [Source: C.A.R.]

Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - 4^th Quarter 07: 33 percent [Source: C.A.R.]

Mortgage rates - week ending 3/20/08: (Source: Freddie Mac)

· 30-yr. fixed: 5.87%; Fees/points: 0.5%

· 15-yr. fixed: 5.27%; Fees/points: 0.5%

If you would like to have Liz help you sell your Marin home or help you find a home, or you know of someone that could benefit from her services, just send her an email: liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com or give her a call: 415-250-4929

"High-Touch through High-Tech": Did you know that Liz McCarthy is ePro Internet Certified by the National Association of Realtors and that 70 percent of home buyers today use the internet in their home search? Why are you still working with a Realtor who isn't a technology expert?

What this means to you:

Home Buyers: Liz is an expert in helping save you time by using the internet, email and other technology resources to help save your valuable time and money. She knows how busy you are!

Home Sellers: Liz will hire a professional photographer and market your home extensively on the internet: a personal property website (see www.417Greenfield.com or www.50milland.com for samples), she will post your home on over 50 websites.

FREE...You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes

Be sure to check out all the other great content & features of my website:

www.BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

The Bay Area Real Estate Newsletter is provided to you by:

Liz McCarthy

"High-Touch through "High-Tech"

Real Estate Broker, e-PRO certified

Vision Real Estate

Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

415-250-4929

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