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Selling your house

Bay Area Real Estate Sales.com Newsletter

February 2005

 

In this Issue:

 

Home Sweet Home - or the Bubble Question Again?

Marin & San Francisco Home Sales Statistics

Marin Housing Market Soars
Do you need Earthquake Insurance?

NAR Housing Update - homes sales set record again in 2004

Fast Facts

 
Home Sweet Home - or the Bubble Question Again?
 
I thought this article on Home Prices and the Bay Area Real Estate Bubble was fantastic.  So rather than write something myself this month, I'm reprinting it here.  It was written by Ray Brown, the President of our San Francisco Marina Pacific Union Office and author of the 2 bestselling books:  "Home Buying for Dummies" and "Home Selling for Dummies":
 
Just as you are what you eat, so you are what you read.  Rapidly rising home prices triggered a spate of articles that attempted to predict precisely when the Bay Area's residential real estate bubble would burst.  Now, surprise, surprise, some folks wonder if homes are still a good investment.  You decide.
 
I've been a San Francisco Realtor since 1974.  In the past 30 years, I've seen several giddy sellers' markets and exactly as many somber buyers' markets.  I've seen 30-year mortgage rates hit a 45-year low of 5.25 percent last June and skyrocket over 18 percent in the early 80's.  I've seen lots of stock market bubble bursts.  It's a misnomer to characterize the residential real estate market as a bubble.  It's more like a balloon that occasionally develops a slow leak.  Once that leak is patched, the balloon resumes its ascent.
 
Homes have never suddenly lost favor with homeowners the way stocks do with stockholders.  Remember when Enron's stock plunged from $49 a share in September 2001 to 25 cents by the end of November 2001, after word got out about corporate malfeasance?  How about the double whammy of Black Friday and Meltdown Monday in October 1987, when the Dow Jones average lost about 25 percent of its value?  That tested the efficacy of everyone's deodorant.
 
Even in the worst of times, however, the Bay Area residential real estate market never burst.  Sure, home prices sagged now and then, but they never burst like a delicate soap bubble.
 
This isn't a hit piece on the stock market.  Stocks and bonds are an essential component of everyone's diversified investment portfolio.  I just don't want people to confuse the way the stock market operates with how the residential real estate market behaves.
 
Homeowners don't have the herd mentality of stockholders.  Suppose, for example, that mortgage rates suddenly zoomed to 18 percent.  Would all homeowners simultaneously put their houses on the market? Of course not.  Higher rates on new loans wouldn't affect tens of millions of existing mortgages. Life would go on.  Sure, home prices would head south.  And sooner or later, as they always do, interest rates would return to normal.  Ditto property values.
 
If you don't sell when prices are down, you don't lose money.  If you must sell in a depressed market, due to divorce, retirement or another major life change, you'll find the real estate gods are scrupulously fair.  Whatever you lose when you sell, you'll immediately recapture when you purchase your next home.  Home prices are like corks floating on a pond.  They all go up and down together.
 
Homeownership isn't just an investment.  It offers a rainbow of benefits:  physical shelter, an inflation hedge, and tax write-offs.  Under current tax laws, house sellers get an awesome tax break.  A hefty portion of capital gains on home sales are excluded from tax:  up to $250,000 for single taxpayers and $500,000 for married couples filing jointly.
 
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Marin & San Francisco Home Sales Statistics**

 

Marin & San Francisco Home Sales Statistics - by city as of 2/01/05

 

City

 

Total

 

Active

Number in Contract***

Percent in Contract*

     Marin County

Belvedere

10

8

2

20%

Corte Madera

12

9

3

25%

Fairfax

8

5

3

38%

Greenbrae

5

3

2

40%

Kentfield

23

11

12

52%

Larkspur

8

3

5

63%

Mill Valley

66

39

27

41%

Novato

110

47

63

57%

Ross

9

6

3

33%

San Anselmo

21

13

8

38%

San Rafael

111

62

49

44%

Sausalito

34

23

11

32%

Tiburon

43

36

7

16%

Others-Marin

 

 

 

 

Total Marin 2/1/05

460

265

195

42%

Total Marin 1/10/05

458

246

212

46%

Total Marin 12/6/04

756

367

389

51%

Total Marin 11/4/04

927

489

438

47%

Total Marin 10/5/04

968

564

404

42%

     San Francisco City & County

Total SF 1/10/05

 

 

 

 

Total SF 1/10/05

984

360

624

63%

Total SF 12/6/04

1402

556

846

60%

Total SF 11/5/04

1656

740

916

55%

 

 

Marin Home Sales Statistics - by price range as of 2/01/05

 

Price

 

Total

 

Active

Number in Contract***

Percent in Contract*

$100,000-$499,999

38

18

20

53%

$500,000-$749,999

103

39

64

62%

$750,000-$999,999

104

62

42

40%

$1,000,000-$1,499,999

92

55

37

40%

$1,500,000-$1,999,999

66

40

26

39%

$2,000,000-$,2499,999

25

22

3

12%

$2,500,000-$2,999,999

15

7

6

40%

Over $3,000,000

55

48

7

13%

Total Marin 1/10/05

498

293

205

41%

Total Marin 1/10/05

458

246

212

46%

Total Marin 12/4/04

756

367

389

51%

Total Marin 11/4/04

927

489

438

47%

Total Marin 10/5/04

968

564

404

42%

 

 

San Francisco Home Sales Statistics - by price range as of 2/16/05

 

Price

 

Total

 

Active

Number in Contract***

Percent in Contract*

$100,000-$499,000

193

68

125

65%

$500,000-$749,000

489

193

296

60%

$750,000-$999,000

193

88

105

54%

$1,000,000-$1,499,000

114

65

49

43%

$1,500,000-$1,999,000

50

35

15

30%

$2,000,000-$2,499,000

18

13

5

28%

$2,500,000-$2,999,000

17

12

5

29%

Over $3,000,000

34

26

8

24%

Total SF 1/10/05

1113

501

612

55%

Total SF 1/10/05

984

360

624

63%

Total SF 12/4/04

1402

556

846

60%

Total SF 11/4/04

 1530

746

924

60%

 

*Key:

  0% - 10% of Homes in Escrow:  Extreme Buyer's Market  36% - 45% of Homes in Escrow:   Seller's market

11% - 20% of Homes in Escrow:  Strong Buyer's Market  46% - 55% of Homes in Escrow:   Strong Seller's market

21% - 30% of Homes in Escrow:  Buyer's Market   56% - 100% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Seller's market

31% - 35% of Homes in Escrow:  Balanced Market

 

**Charts represent information gathered from BAREIS and SFMLS at a specific point in time.

***Includes all: Sale Pending & Contingent properties

 

Back to top
 
Marin Housing Market Soars
 

Prices, sales rise; Realtor calls it 'madness'

Reported in the Marin Independent Journal, 2/16/05 By Jim Welte, IJ reporter

 

Marin home sales and the median price paid for them continued to soar in January, jumping nearly 24 percent in year-over-year sales and reaching all-time highs for median prices, according to a report from a real estate information firm.

 

La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems reported that the median price for a single-family home in Marin last month was $850,000, a nearly 26 percent jump over January 2004 and a 5 percent jump over the previous month.

Including both single-family homes and condominiums and townhouses, the Marin median price was $740,000, a 19 percent jump over the same period a year ago and up slightly from November 2004, the previous all-time high.

 

"It's just total madness out there right now," Marin Association of Realtors President Jack McLaughlin said.

Marin's median home price, both for single-family homes and overall, was by far the highest in the Bay Area, with San Mateo County a distant second at $698,000 and $693,000, respectively.  Marin's median price for townhouses and condos was $493,000 in January, up more than 13 percent over last year. San Francisco had the highest median price in that category at $670,000.

 

A combination of several factors is sending prices through the roof, several local industry experts said.  The biggest factor is lack of inventory, they said. While buyer demand traditionally outstrips inventory at this time of year, the situation is exacerbated by high demand.  McLaughlin said the trend of multiple frenzied buyers making offers well above the asking price - a phenomenon that peaked early last year - has returned.

 

McLaughlin said he personally has been involved in at least 12 listings that have received multiple offers above the asking price. We have to keep checking and making sure the fax machine has paper in it we've been so busy," he said. "I am totally buried in real estate transactions."  Lack of inventory is the only thing preventing the housing market in Marin from exploding, said Larry Brackett, chief executive of Frank Howard Allen Realtors.  "The buyers are out there," he said.

 

Even with the lack of inventory to match buyer demand, a total of 309 homes in Marin were sold in January, a 23.6 percent leap over January 2004. The numbers reflect the closure of sales, and sales normally plummet in the winter months.   

 

Another major factor in the craze continues to be appreciation, according to Barry Crotty, an agent with Pacific Union Residential Real Estate in Greenbrae.  For example, he said a typical $600,000 home in Terra Linda has appreciated by $100,000 just in the past year.  Sellers have gotten more savvy about the presentation of their homes, which changes the perceived value of a home even beyond the increase in its actual value.   "The perceived value is certainly a little greater than it was in past years," he said.

 

Given continued low interest rates, even with the recent increase by the Federal Reserve, homeowners are also able to remodel and expand their homes relatively cheaply, several experts said. As a result, the actual quality of homes being sold is improving, furthering that appreciation.

 

"If you drive around Marin, all you hear are saws and hammers," he said. "People are really upgrading the housing stock in Marin. We're not selling the same houses that we did six months ago or three or five years ago."   The phenomenon is not limited to Marin, Brackett said.   A total of 7,509 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county region in January, DataQuick reported. That was a nearly 6 percent jump over the same period a year ago.

 

"As far as identifying trends, January and February numbers are generally shaky because of somewhat atypical mid-winter purchase patterns," DataQuick President Marshall Prentice said. "Still, last month's statistics were a continuation of trends we saw toward the end of last year. More surprising than the strong sales counts was the strong appreciation rate."

 

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $534,000, a new record. That was up 0.2 percent from $533,000 in December, and up 20.5 percent from $443,000 for January a year ago. The last time annual price increases in the Bay Area were more than 20 percent was in January 2001, when the $375,000 median was up 20.2 percent from $312,000 a year earlier, DataQuick reported.

Local industry experts said the market shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon, particularly if sellers step up and match buyers' demand.

 

"I don't think that anybody who works in this industry right now really believes that there is a bubble," Crotty said.

 
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Do you need Earthquake Insurance?
 

This month Liz McCarthy interviewed Jay Zemansky, Insurance Broker from Sadler & Company Insurance, on the subject of Earthquake Insurance:

 

Q:  What is the California Earthquake Authority and how does it work

 

California Earthquake Authority was created so that ALL homeowners/renters/condo unit owners would have access to a market for earthquake insurance no matter where they live in California.  It was created to be self funded by insurance premiums with no State of Calif. Funds used to pay claims.  It has been in existence for over 10 years and is now fully funded and ready to pay out on any disaster that might occurred due to an "event".

 

If a person has a policy for earthquake insurance through their insurance carrier there is a 70% plus chance that it is a CEA policy.  The individual insurers handle the paper-work for their Clients with homeowners, renters or condo insurance and place the earthquake coverage with the CEA.  The balance of the insurance companies carry the earthquake coverage directly.  When and if an "event" occurs a claim is made to the Client's insurance carrier and they pass on the loss notice to the CEA.

 

Q:   What are the limits & deductibles on coverage?  

 

Coverage is for the amount of insurance as stated on the Clients policy.example: a $500,000 homeowners has $500,000 coverage.  There is no extended replacement cost as on the fire portion of many policies.

 

The deductible is usually 15% of the stated amount of coverage ($500,000 fire insurance on the home would be a $75,000 deductible).  The basic policy includes $5,000 contents coverage AND $1500 (max) loss of usage (additional living expenses) due to an earthquake loss.  There is only one deductible per claim and the deductible is determined by the fire insurance coverage as above $75,000 total deductible for the dwelling/contents/loss of use.

 

Q: What items are not covered by earthquake insurance?

 

Coverage is for the dwelling with limited coverage on contents and loss of usage.  Recently additional coverage can be purchased for increased contents and loss of usage due to an insured loss.  This would include all earthquake damage.for the dwelling/contents included in this would be fire that was a direct result of the earthquake.

 

Q:  Can earthquake insurance ever be cancelled if there are too many claims statewide?

 

NO.the CEA was created to enable all Californian's to obtain insurance for earthquake (even in MONO County).

 

Q: Who should get earthquake insurance?

 

If you are a homeowner I highly recommend you obtain coverage as your home is the largest asset you will purchase in your lifetime.  I you own a condo, your association should have earthquake coverage on the structure.  If you are a renter you should consider this coverage for your personal property and loss of use.  If the "BIG ONE" hits, entire apartment buildings could be destroyed as in the 1989 quake.  The landlord does NOT carry any insurance for tenants' personal property.

 

For more information please contact: Jay Zemansky   415-457-2400  email:   sadlerinc@earthlink.net

 

Back to top

 

NAR Housing Update - homes sales set record again in 2004

 

January 25, 2005 --   Existing single-family home sales surged in 2004, well above the previous record set in 2003, while the December pace declined from a monthly record in November, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

 

There were a total of 6,675,000 existing-home sales in 2004, up 9.4 percent from 6,100,000 in 2003. This is the fourth consecutive annual record; NAR began tracking the sales series in 1968.

 

Existing-home sales slipped 3.3 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate* of 6.69 million units from a downwardly revised level of 6.92 million units in November, which was tied with June 2004 for the highest on record. Last month's sales activity was 5.0 percent higher than the 6.37-million unit level in December 2003 and was the sixth-highest monthly pace on record.

 

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, says a decline was expected in December. "Our sense was that November sales were the peak for the current housing cycle, but activity remains strong," he says. "There is no sign of a downturn. Home sales will continue at historically high levels, and 2005 is expected to be the second-best year on record for the housing market."

 

NAR President Al Mansell, CEO of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Salt Lake City, said market conditions are favorable. "Investment opportunities remain for potential homebuyers," he says. "Low mortgage interest rates are keeping the door to homeownership open, which is the key to building family wealth over time."

 

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.75 percent in December, compared with 5.73 percent in November and 5.88 percent in December 2003. The average 30-year rate for all of 2004 was 5.84 percent, the second lowest annual average since Freddie Mac started tracking interest rates in 1971; the lowest was 5.83 percent in 2003.

 

Housing inventory levels dropped 11.7 percent at the end of December with 2.18 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 3.9-month supply at the current sales pace. "Tight housing supply is continuing to put pressure on home prices because we still have more buyers than sellers in the market. In fact, the month's supply of homes available for sale is the lowest on record," Lereah said.

 

The national median existing-home price was $188,900 in December, up 8.1 percent from December 2003 when the median price was $174,800. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.  For all of 2004, the median price was $184,100, up 8.3 percent from a median of $170,000 in 2003. This is the strongest annual increase since 1980 when the median price rose 11.7 percent.

 

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 1.4 percent from November to an annual rate of 1.41 million units in December, and were 3.7 percent above December 2003. The median price in the Midwest was $152,000, up 7.1 percent from a year ago.  In the Northeast, existing-home sales rose 1.4 percent in December to a pace of 750,000 units, and were 4.2 percent higher than a year earlier. The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $214,800, up 8.6 percent from December 2003.

 

Existing-home sales in the South declined 4.2 percent in December to an annual rate of 2.71 million units, but were 6.3 percent higher than a year ago. The median price of an existing home in the South was $173,200, which was 8.3 percent higher than December 2003.

 

The home resale pace in the West fell 7.2 percent to an annual rate of 1.81 million units in December, but was 4.0 percent stronger than December 2003. The median existing-home price in the West was $281,200, up 11.9 percent from the same month a year earlier.-NAR

 

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Fast Facts

 

·Calif. median home price - Dec. 04: $474,480 (Source: C.A.R.)

·Calif. affordability index - Nov. 04: 19 percent (Source: C.A.R.)

·Calif. highest median home price by C.A.R. region - Dec. 04: St. Barbara So. Coast $960,000 (Source: C.A.R.)

·Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region Dec. 04: High Desert $244,410 (Source: C.A.R.)

·Mortgage rates - week ending 2/17: (Source: Freddie Mac)
30-yr. fixed: 5.62%; Fees/points: 0.7%
15-yr. fixed: 5.14%; Fees/points: 0.7%
1-yr. adjustable: 4.18%; Fees/points: 0.6%

 

FREE.....Email Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com or call (415) 380-2114 Liz and she'll send you a free Marin Information packet.  You can also search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com:  Search for Homes

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