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Bay Area Real Estate Sales.com Newsletter

FALL 2012 Marin Real Estate Stats


In This Month’s Issue:

SEPT/OCT 2012 MARIN REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

LIZ McCARTHY LISTINGS

WHAT IS YOUR MARIN HOME WORTH TODAY?

FORECLOSURES/BANK OWNED AND AUCTION PROPERTIES

SEARCH MARIN HOMES FOR SALE

MARIN SCHOOL, COMMUNITY & HOME SEMINAR

WHAT DO CLIENTS SAY ABOUT WORKING WITH LIZ McCARTHY?



OCTOBER 2012 MARIN REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE



Fall 2012 Closed Sales

Single Family Residences


Days on Market

List

Price

Selling Price

$/Square Foot

Average

92

$1,004,290

$983,751

$437

Median

63

$754,500

$750,000

$372

 


Fall 2012 Closed Sales

Condos


Days on Market

List

Price

Selling Price

$/Square Foot

Average

100

$404,976

$406,682

$303

Median

68

$325,000

$319,000

$242

Overall Marin County Market Trends:
As of 10/24/12 there are currently 1052 active homes and condos for sale in Marin County. 491 of these homes (47%) are currently under contract, which equates to a “Strong Sellers Market”. (See seller/buyer Market Legend below)

Single Family Homes: There are currently (as of 10/24/12) 837 (359 of those are under contract) Single Family Homes for Sale in Marin County. The current ACTIVE/Pending/Contingent average home price for Single Family homes in Marin is $1,765,000 and the median is $942,500.The overall Marin average asking price per square foot is $437sf; the median is: $372/sf The average sold price for Single family homes in Marin in September was $983,751 and the median sold price was: $750,000. In September it took 63 Median days for Single Family Homes to go pending.

Condos: There are currently 251 Condos for sale in Marin County as of 10/24/12 (134 under contract). The current ACTIVE/Pending/Contingent average home price for Condos in Marin is: $434,000 and the median is: $349,000. The average sold price for Condos in Marin County for the month of September was: $406,000 and the median: $319,000.  The overall Marin average asking price per square foot for condos is: $303/square foot; the median asking price is: $242/sf. It is taking an average of 100 days for condos to go pending.


How is the Marin Real Estate Market Performing?


In September, the average price paid for Bay Area homes achieved the highest level seen in over 4 years. DataQuick real estate information services report that this is due to a combination of several factors; including slowly improving economic conditions, lower mortgage interest rates and the recent shift in market mix.

It’s obvious that a lot of fence-sitters are getting active. We’re probably past that most attractive of mathematical sweet spots, the one that combines low interest rates and low prices. In other words, price increases the past few months outweigh mortgage rate declines. Potential buyers are also encountering fewer homes for sale. Additionally, going through today’s qualification process for a mortgage is still a real grind,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.


In my opinion, DataQuick is answering the questions that all buyers and sellers have been asking for some time, “When have we hit bottom?” The answer is we’ve hit it and now we are back on the price upward trend again. Combined with an extreme low amount of inventory, the trend is once again to have multiple offers for buyers, with home prices going over asking.




A Fun Look at Historical Home Prices in Marin County

In 1965, less than 50 years ago, The Average Sale Price was $30,710
•In 1978, the Average Sale Price passed $100,000
•In 2005, the Average Sale Price passed $1,000,000
•In 2007, the Average Sale Price peaked at $1,223,678
•There was a double-dip and our lowest recent Average Sale Price was $848,348 in 2011
•Today October 2012, the Average Sale Price year-to-date is $869,877

Over 90% of the market are Fannie, Freddie and FHA insured loans (In the Bay Area).

 




California Statewide Real Estate Trends:


Sales statewide are up 5.1%, median home price up 10.9% compared to 2011. Looking to 2013, they expect sales to increase 1.3% and the state-wide median to hit $335,000 for increase of 5.7%. The big shift in selling, over the last four years is that equity sellers (non-distressed sales) have increased from about 30% of the total to 60% where the share of foreclosed or REO properties have decreased from 60% of the market to 20% of the market and the share of short sales have increased from 10% of the market to 20% of the market. The big constraint on home sales, today and into 2013, will continue to be lack of inventory which is down 40% from where was a year ago.


One economic concern is that we are currently at 1.3% growth where 3% is the bar for stable growth. On the positive side, unemployment is heading down. Job gains are being seen in California and the bay area is leading in this regard. Construction is starting to come back; manufacturing is stumbling, but the worst is over. Consumer confidence is up a little (the low was Feb 2009) and inflation growing at less than 2% CPI.



Marin County Months of Inventory at Lowest Point Since 2005

We haven’t seen the limited amount of inventory in Marin County since our market peaked back in 2005. Compared to the 3rd Quarter of 2011, the inventory is down 43.3%. There is currently only 2 Months of Inventory based on closed sales. A balanced market would have approximately 4 Months of Inventory. The highest inventory level was the 1st Quarter of 2009 where there was 12.4 Months of Inventory. Inventory has been declining since then. At our lowest point this year (back in March, we only had 2.3 months of available inventory). If you have been considering selling your home, the majority of the Marin Real Estate market has turned back to a Sellers Market!

 

Marin County Market stats 10/12


Marin County market stats 10/12

 

What Type of Market is Marin In?

The following rates are calculated by taking all of the currently active Properties divided by the number that are under contract (Contingent and Pending). This percentage can give you an overall view of the health of the market (*see the Market Legend below to see what market type that pending number falls into). The higher the percentage the “hotter” the market is for sellers, meaning there are often multiple offers with competitive pricing, which ultimately drives the price up.

Analysis by City:

Extreme Buyers

Strong Buyers

Buyers

Balanced Market

Sellers

Strong Sellers

Extreme Sellers


Belvedere
Ross

Kentfield
Tiburon


Mill Valley
San Anselmo

Fairfax
Greenbrae
San Rafael
Sausalito

Corte Madera
Larkspur
Novato

Analysis by Price Range:

Extreme Buyers

Strong Buyers

Buyers

Balanced Market

Sellers

Strong Sellers

Extreme Sellers

$4M+


$3M-$3.9M

$1.3M -$2.49M

$2.5M-$2.9M


$500K - $1.29M

0-$499K

 

Market Legend

0% - 10% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Buyers

36% - 45% of Homes in Escrow: Sellers

11% - 20% of Homes in Escrow: Strong Buyers

46% - 55% of Homes in Escrow: Strong Sellers

21% - 30% of Homes in Escrow: Buyers

56% - 100% of Homes in Escrow: Extreme Sellers

31% - 35% of Homes in Escrow: Balanced Market

*Based on information from Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. (BAREIS). Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed, and is subject to change and is based on one period of time.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LIZ McCARTHY LISTINGS

Liz’s Listings:

 

101 Knollwood, San Rafael

3/2.5 Townhome on the golf course, end unit in Peacock Gap, Price $599,000

www.101Knollwood.com


109 Knollwood, San Rafael

3/2 Townhome on the golf course Price $549,000

www.109Knollwood.com


Listings Coming Soon:

351 Melrose, Mill Valley (Homestead Valley) Price TBD, fixer, likely low $750,000 range 2BR/1BA (plus separate 1 BR/1 BA)

720 Knocknabal Way, San Rafael 3/2 1-level Home in Terra Linda with a pool, Price TBD

Parkview Cir, Corte Madera, 2BR/2BA 1 level condo, coming in January 2012 Price TBD

 

Liz’s Current Escrows:

11 Linnet Court, Off market, Marinwood San Rafael $479,000

2100 Elderberry Lane, Marinwood San Rafael, $775,000

482 Fairway Drive, Novato $1,395,000

1323 Las Raposas, Terra Linda San Rafael, $1,100,000

8 Duxbury Cove, San Rafael, $450,000


Liz Closings 2012 - $12M to Date

279 Flagstone Terr, Marinwood San Rafael $632,000 (Represented Buyers, multiple offers)

812 S Eliseo, Greenbrae $492,000 (Represented Seller

59 Roundtree, Marinwood San Rafael (off market) $355,000 represented Buyers)

519 Throckmorton, Mill Valley LEASED $11,000/month

45 Marina, San Rafael, LEASED $6,000/month

683 S Eliseo, Greenbrae, $518,000 (Represented Seller)

1917 Benton, Novato $705,500 (Represented Buyer)

397 Headlands Court, Sausalito $395,000 (representing Buyers)

212 Spencer Avenue, Sausalito $1,295,000 (represented Buyers)

1247 Highland Avenue, Novato $700,000 (represented Buyer)

6 Merrydale Court, San Rafael $249,000 Short sale (represented Sellers)

209 West Street, Sausalito $551,000 (represented Buyers and Sellers)

40 Oak Mountain, San Rafael $1,202,000 (represented Buyer, multiple offers)

448 Miller Creek Road, Marinwood San Rafael $669,500 (represented Buyer)

25 Ridgewood Drive, San Rafael $780,000 (represented Buyer)

15 Forrest Lane, Terra Linda San Rafael $184,000 (short sale, represented Buyers)

35 Bernard, Mill Valley $1,650,000 (represented Seller)

529 Rowland, Novato $425,000 (short sale, represented Seller)

2530 Opalstone, Marinwood San Rafael, $560,000 (represented Buyers)


2011 - $15M in closed sales

2010 - $12M in closed sales


WHAT IS YOUR MARIN HOME WORTH TODAY?


I’m constantly on the look out for information to better prepare my clients to understand the local real estate market. I’ve got 2 great new stat evaluation programs that I’m providing FREE of charge to my clients and viewers of my newsletter!


FREE HOME VALUATION REPORT TOOL:
This tool will actually give you an approximate VALUE of YOUR home. Additionally, you can make changes to your “home” which will change your homes valuation. This is nice for running scenarios (like do I add on to my house to make it bigger or add bedrooms?) This report will give you an instant home valuation. You do have the option of entering your email address to receive updates of when new homes sell.

Free Marin Home Value Report


DETAILED MARKET EVALUATION REPORT BY CITY:

Fabulous stats program that breaks down city statics. Will show you weekly average and median prices, days on market, Additionally, you can sign up to receive a detailed weekly market update of your interested city. Whenever you view this page the graphics will automatically update to the most current data, so check back often, or even better, sign up to receive alerts of when new statics are released by city.

FREE Statistical Reports by Marin Town


FORECLOSURES/BANK OWNED AND AUCTION PROPERTIES


I’ve been tracking the Marin County Foreclosure data since April of 2009. In April 2009, there were a total of 843 total distressed homes in Marin County (per the County Tax records) and as of Oct 24 2012, the number is 963. The number of distressed homes is down considerably from it’s peak in late 2011.


As part of a continuing trend suggesting that the housing crisis is tailing off, foreclosures dropped sharply in Marin, the Bay Area and California last quarter.


Foreclosures in Marin were down 58 percent in the third quarter of 2012, to 55, compared with 131 in the third quarter of 2011, according to San Diego-based DataQuick. Also, fewer homeowners fell behind on their mortgages

September's foreclosure resales – homes having been foreclosed on during the previous 12 months – accounted for 13.9% of resales in the market, decreasing from August's revised 14.5%, as well as decreasing from the 25.4% seen a year ago. These September figures for foreclosure resales were the lowest since the figure was 10.1% in November 2007. Foreclosure resales were at their highest in February 2009 at 52.0%. Over the past 17 years, 10% is the usual monthly average for foreclosure resales.

Marin county recorded 241 notices of default in the third quarter, down 18 percent from the same period in 2011 and the lowest figure in at least five years. Default notices are filed when borrowers fall behind on their mortgages.

"Marin is right in there with the other wealthier California coastal counties where the market has stabilized," said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage. "There aren't as many people getting in trouble."

Indications of distress in the market are continuing to move in multiple directions. Activity in foreclosures continues to remain high in comparison with historical standards. However, it has been on a recent downward trend and it's significantly below the peak levels reached during the past few years. DataQuick also reports that multiple mortgage financing is low and the sizes of down payments are now at a more stable level.

The dramatic drop in foreclosures was due at least in part to banks' increasing willingness to work with homeowners on loan modifications and short sales. A short sale is when a homeowner sells the house for less than is owed to the bank


Liz has closed a number of short sales this year (representing both buyers and sellers). If you are feeling a hardship with your home, please feel free to confidentially contact me.


Marin County foreclosed homes 102012


 

Type

Number as of 10/24/12

Pre-foreclosure

275

Auction Sale

375

Bank Owned

313

TOTAL

963

 


 

 

 

 

FREE…..You can search for Marin listings directly on BayAreaRealEstateSales.com: Search for Homes


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SEARCH MARIN HOMES FOR SALE


Belvedere Homes For Sale

Corte Madera Homes For Sale

Fairfax Homes For Sale

Greenbrae Homes For Sale

Kentfield Homes For Sale

Larkspur Homes For Sale

Mill Valley Homes For Sale

Mill Valley Condos For Sale

Novato Homes For Sale

Novato Condos

Ross Homes For Sale

San Anselmo Homes For Sale

San Rafael Homes For Sale

San Rafael Condos For Sale

Sausalito Homes For Sale

Tiburon Homes For Sale

Marin Luxury homes priced over $2M - $3M Marin Luxury Home Search:

Marin homes priced over $3M Marin Luxury Home Search:

Floating Homes for sale: Sausalito House Boats




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MARIN SCHOOL, COMMUNITY & HOME SEMINAR


Are you considering a move to or within Marin County?


Starting in 2010 Liz starting conducting regular Marin School, Community and Home Seminars. To date, she has held 17 of these seminars to rave reviews! In these seminars, Liz goes over:


1.   Marin Schools

2.   Preschool information

3.   Micro Climates of Marin

4.   Commuting to and from San Francisco

5.   Marin Communities

6.   Average Home prices in different Marin towns

7.  Current Mortgage Market update (given by a banking/mortgage expert)


Next Seminar date:

November 15, 2012


Contact Liz for more info

If you are interested in attending an upcoming seminar, you can find the dates, locations and details to RSVP here:

www.MyMarinHouse.com


THE BAY AREA REAL ESTATE NEWSLETTER IS PROVIDED TO YOU BY:


If you would like to have Liz help you sell your Marin home or help you find a home, or you know of someone that could benefit from her services, just send her an email: liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com or give her a call: 415-250-4929



WHAT DO CLIENTS SAY ABOUT WORKING WITH LIZ McCARTHY?


We are writing this letter to recommend 1he excellent services of Liz McCarthy. We have been looking to buy a house in Marin since the fall of 2011. Liz showed us numerous properties till the right one showed up on November 8th. We saw the house at 11:00 and as it felt totally right for us - by 14:00 Liz had our offer in her hands.


Being a short-sale that had fallen through just a few weeks earlier and now had multiple bids due to a really low price we faced some issues. We had to outbid other offers without knowing the former accepted price by the lender, yet not wanting to raise the price too much.


We also were scheduled to go abroad 4 weeks later, about the time the home inspections were to take place. We also found out at the last minute that there was a second mortgage, which made the sale complex and difficult to complete in our timeframe.


With all of this going on Liz performed a number of fantastic professional feats. Due to her experience, connections in the right places as well her great 'people skills' she was able to overcome the obstacles, guide us well in our pricing decisions and push the right buttons to close the deal right on time, the 30th of December, maybe the shortest short-sale of only 7.5 weeks!


While we went abroad in the middle of that Liz worked seamlessly with our good friend as our power-of- attorney, helped schedule inspections, opened the house for the inspectors and made sure all was done right. The inspections discovered some repair issues that were not noticeable on our visual inspection and those issues amounted to thousands of dollars. Liz wrote a very convincing letter to the lender, who agreed to reduce the sale price for the full amount requested. Amazing feat!


Upon our return in January she handed us the house keys and all documents pertaining to the sale, all organized and nothing missing. We highly recommend her for everything she did for us. She is a dedicated professional who knows her field extremely well, has great connections and a very sunny attitude, lots of patience and all that with a great smile, We could have not pulled this off without her. “

-The Greensfield family, San Rafael, July 2012


Liz McCarthy, PMN


Real Estate Broker, e-PRO certified

McGuire Real Estate, Top Producer and Partner

McGuire #1 Agent for Marin County 2011

2010 President Marin Women’s Council of Realtors

2012 REALTOR of the Year Marin Women’s Council of Realtors

Top 2% of Marin agents 2011

Verified members of Marin Top Agent Network & Marin Platinum Group

415-250-4929


Liz@BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

www.BayAreaRealEstateSales.com

www.MarinwoodRealEstateBlog.com

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/lizsmccarthy

Twitter: www.twitter.com/lizsmccarthy

DRE License Number: 01421997


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